Tata Power, Suzlon Energy, NTPC, CESC, Power Grid, IEX, Inox Wind: Q4 results preview

Nuvama Institutional Equities, in a fresh note on power sector, said it expected modest profit growth across its coverage universe in the March quarter due to subdued thermal plant load factor (PLF) and weak power demand.

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX) is expected to record strong top-line growth, driven by robust volume growth of 21 per cent YoY. CESC Ltd, on the back of strong PLF in Haldia, is expected to post strong profit after tax (PAT) growth of 30 per cent YoY, while Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd is likely to report 10 per cent YoY profit growth, in line with growth in regulated equity, supported by strong commissioning in Q4FY26, comfortably beating guidance given at the start of the year.

In wind segment, Inox Wind Ltd and Suzlon Energy Ltd are likely to execute 400MW and 875MW, respectively, in Q4, with steady margins of 20 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively. For Tata Power Company Ltd, Nuvama  expects the company to report flat PAT growth YoY owing to continued UMPP losses. even as Odisha performance remains impressive. CESC and NTPC are Nuvama’s top picks in the power sector. 

Most of these firms are yet to announce schedule for their quarterly results. 

“We reckon Nuvama’s power coverage universe shall post modest PAT growth in Q4FY26, driven by weak PLF across utilities (NTPC’s Q4 PLF at 76.7 per cent versus 82.7 per cent YoY). Tata Power may face continued higher losses from Mundra UMPP shutdown with the losses softening from Q1FY27
with the plant now operational). Top picks: CESC, NTPC,” Nuvama said.

Tata Power Company Q4 results preview
Nuvama expects Tata Power to report a flattish adjusted PAT of Rs 1,052 crore for the March quarter against Rs 1,042.80 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue is seen rising 8.78 per cent YoY to Rs 18,597 crore from Rs 17,095.90 crore YoY. Ebitda is seen at Rs 3,700 crore and Ebitda margin at 19.9 per cent.

“We expect YoY flattish PAT in Q4FY26, as losses persist at Rs 400 crore per quarter in Mundra UMPP (expected to soften from Q1FY27 as PPA get signed), even as solar manufacturing profits get offset by rising captive sales. Strong showing in Odisha is expected to continue. Tata projects and Mundra UMPP performance along with consolidation of EPC/module sales is a key
monitorable going ahead,” Nuvama said.

Suzlon Energy Q4 results preview
Nuvama expects Suzlon Energy to report a 6.31 per cent YoY drop in adjusted PAT at Rs 1,107.60 crore for the March quarter against Rs 1,182 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue is seen rising 56 per cent YoY to Rs 5,914 crore from Rs 3,789 crore YoY. Ebitda is seen at Rs 1,044 crore and Ebitda margin at 17.7 per cent. Nuvama anticipated execution of 875MW in Q4FY26, as 9MFY26 performance exudes optimism to deliver good execution number. 

“Q4 margin to hover around ~18% (more EPC related work expected). Further execution ramp up and
margin (due to fluctuations in EPC mix) remain key monitorables going forward with any deferred tax angle and the quantum thereby in Q4 is a key variable to watch out for,” it said.

NTPC Q4 results preview
NTPC is seen reporting a 7.39 per cent YoY rise in adjusted PAT at Rs 5,370 crore for the March quarter against Rs 5,001.10 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue is seen rising 6.68 per cent YoY to Rs 46,834 crore from Rs 43,903 crore YoY. Ebitda is seen at Rs 12,510 crore and Ebitda margin at 26.7 per cent. The profit growth will be in single digits due to limited commissioning over the last 12 months. 

CESC Q4 results preview
CESC is seen reporting a 32.57 per cent YoY jump in adjusted PAT at Rs 494.50 crore for the March quarter against Rs 373 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue is seen rising 13.21 per cent YoY to Rs 4,389 crore from Rs 3,877 crore YoY. Ebitda is seen at Rs 1,155 crore and Ebitda margin at 26.3 per cent. The profit growth is seen on a weak Q3FY25 base and strong PLF in Haldia. 

“In distribution, we expect Malegaon losses to soften to Rs 200 crore in Q4 with the company focussed on reducing T&D losses. Generation business is expected to be largely flat YoY while Dhariwal is expected to post lower profits due to weak PLF,” Nuvama said.

Power Grid Q4 results preview
Power Grid is anticipated to report a 10.39 per cent YoY jump in adjusted PAT at Rs 4,786 crore for the March quarter against Rs 4,336 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue is seen climbing 17.84 per cent YoY to Rs 12,942 crore from Rs 10,982 crore YoY. Ebitda is seen at Rs 11,016 crore and Ebitda margin at 85.10 per cent. The profit growth is seen in sync with growth in regulated equity YoY, owing to strong commissioning in H2FY26. Capex trajectory and commissioning on ground remains a key monitorable for the company going ahead with strong H2FY26 showing adding to higher expectations, Nuvama said.

IEX Q4 results preview
IEX is anticipated to report a 24.14 per cent YoY jump in adjusted PAT at Rs 145.40 crore for the March quarter against Rs 117.10 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue is seen climbing 27.53 per cent YoY to Rs 181.40 crore from Rs 142.20 crore YoY. Ebitda is seen at Rs 154 crore and Ebitda margin at 84.90 per cent. Nuvama said total volume growth for IEX was a strong at 21 per cent in Q4,  owing to strong RTM growth and REC growing 120 per cent YoY. 

“We anticipate strong PAT growth of 24 per cent YoY in Q4FY26 largely in-line with similar Electricity volume growth in Q4,” it said.

Inox Wind Q4 results preview
Inox Wind is expected to report a 46.11 per cent YoY jump in adjusted PAT at Rs 280 crore for the March quarter against Rs 191.80 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue is seen climbing 68.49 per cent YoY to Rs 2,147 crore from Rs 1,274.80 crore YoY. Ebitda is seen at Rs 437.90 crore and Ebitda margin at 20.40 per cent. 

“We expect execution of 400 MW in Q4FY26 implying a total execution of 1000MW in FY26 (guidance at 1200 MW at start of FY26). We expect Ebitda margin of 20–21 epr cent owing to higher product supply mix with revenue to be close to Rs 5,300 crore for FY26 with OI growth remaining a key trigger for the stock,” Nuvama said.