Can NEAR price reclaim $3 as golden cross nears?

NEAR Protocol has rallied more than 44% from its weekly low as AI-driven momentum, protocol upgrade optimism, and aggressive short liquidations pushed the token toward a major technical breakout.

According to data from crypto.news, NEAR Protocol (NEAR) climbed from a weekly bottom near $1.47 to an intraday high of $2.10 before extending gains toward the $2.20 region on Thursday. The move came even as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) traded within a subdued range following renewed concerns over U.S. inflation and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.

A renewed wave of capital rotation into artificial intelligence-linked crypto assets has emerged as one of the key catalysts behind NEAR’s outperformance. Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings earlier this week reignited speculative demand across AI infrastructure tokens, particularly projects tied to decentralized compute, AI agents, and data privacy.

Adding to the momentum, NEAR AI rolled out an automated Personally Identifiable Information anonymization framework on May 20. The feature strips sensitive user information from prompts before they interact with external large language models, addressing enterprise concerns surrounding data leakage and compliance risks.

Market participants also reacted positively to Network Upgrade 2.13, scheduled for June. The upgrade introduces post-quantum cryptographic signing alongside automated dynamic resharding through NEAR Intents. Developers say the system will allow the network to scale database shards automatically during traffic spikes, potentially reducing congestion and improving institutional-grade throughput.

At the same time, derivatives activity around NEAR accelerated sharply. Data from CoinGlass showed open interest surging more than 63% over the past 24 hours to $629 million while funding rates flipped strongly positive, signaling an aggressive build-up in leveraged long positioning.

Meanwhile, liquidation data from CoinGlass pointed to a significant short squeeze unfolding above the $2 level. Heatmap clusters showed dense liquidation zones stacked between $2.05 and $2.18, many of which were triggered as NEAR pushed through key resistance levels during the rally.

The latest move also coincided with improving sentiment across the altcoin market following continued inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs earlier this week. Although macro conditions remain fragile, ETF demand has helped stabilize risk appetite after several weeks of heavy volatility tied to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Oil markets remained elevated after ongoing uncertainty surrounding shipping activity near the Strait of Hormuz continued to fuel inflation concerns. Higher crude prices have complicated the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts, with traders now pricing in a prolonged higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

Despite those macro headwinds, several analysts believe AI-linked crypto assets may continue attracting speculative flows independently from the broader market direction. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Consultancy, recently said the AI sector remains “one of the strongest narrative trades” in crypto due to rising institutional interest in decentralized compute infrastructure.

Is a golden cross setting up a larger NEAR breakout?

On the daily chart, NEAR has broken above a descending trendline that had capped price action since late January. The breakout accelerated after buyers reclaimed the Murrey Math 7/8 resistance zone near $2.14, which had previously acted as a key reversal level during multiple failed rallies earlier this year.

More importantly, the 50-day moving average appears close to crossing above the 200-day moving average. A confirmed golden cross would signal the first major bullish trend reversal on NEAR’s daily timeframe since late 2025.

The chart also shows NEAR reclaiming the 4/8 major support and resistance pivot at $1.56 earlier this month before rapidly advancing through the 5/8 and 6/8 Murrey Math zones. Bulls are now attempting to establish support above the 7/8 “weak stop and reverse” level around $2.14.

Should buyers maintain control above that region, the next major upside target sits near the 8/8 resistance zone around $2.34. A breakout above that level could open the door toward the +1/8 overshoot area near $2.53, followed by the +2/8 extreme overshoot level around $2.73.

From a broader structure perspective, reclaiming the psychological $3 level would require sustained momentum beyond the +3/8 reversal zone near $2.93. Notably, NEAR has not traded above $3 on a sustained basis since the sharp correction that followed the AI-token rally earlier this year.

Momentum indicators have also strengthened considerably during the latest breakout. The MACD recently flipped bullish on the daily timeframe while price continues holding firmly above the 50-day moving average, currently positioned near $1.43.

According to CoinGlass liquidation data, another sizable cluster of short liquidations remains stacked between $2.30 and $2.40. A decisive move through that area could trigger another wave of forced buybacks from overleveraged bearish traders.

At the same time, elevated funding rates suggest parts of the market may already be becoming overheated in the short term. Historically, aggressive leverage build-ups following vertical rallies often increase the probability of sharp volatility spikes or temporary pullbacks.

What could invalidate the bullish NEAR thesis?

Although the technical structure has improved significantly, several downside risks remain in play.

A rejection below the $2.14 resistance zone would weaken the immediate breakout thesis and potentially expose NEAR to a pullback toward the $1.95 support region. Losing that level could shift momentum back toward the 5/8 Murrey Math support around $1.75.

Macro conditions also remain a major risk factor for the crypto market. Another upside surprise in U.S. inflation data or further escalation in Middle East tensions could strengthen the U.S. dollar and pressure risk assets, particularly high-beta altcoins.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim major resistance levels continues limiting broader altcoin participation. A sharp correction in BTC below key support zones could quickly erase speculative momentum across AI-linked tokens, including NEAR.

Derivatives positioning presents another concern. While rising open interest and positive funding rates initially supported the rally, excessively crowded long positioning increases liquidation risk if momentum stalls. In such scenarios, cascading long liquidations often amplify downside volatility.

For now, however, NEAR remains one of the strongest-performing large-cap altcoins in the market, with traders closely watching whether the approaching golden cross and sustained AI narrative momentum can eventually fuel a move back toward the $3 psychological level.