Gold surges Rs 5,000 in 2 weeks: Should you buy on Akshaya Tritiya for gains by Dhanteras?

Gold prices in India have surged sharply ahead of Akshaya Tritiya 2026, rising nearly ₹5,000 per 10 grams in just two weeks. The MCX gold rate jumped from ₹1,49,690 to ₹1,54,605, delivering a gain of around 3.3% . With prices hovering near record highs, investors are now grappling with a familiar question: should you buy gold during the auspicious festival in the hope of booking profits by Dhanteras later this year?

Rally back again

The latest upmove in gold is not purely seasonal. It is underpinned by a strong macroeconomic backdrop that continues to favor safe-haven assets. Persistent geopolitical tensions, robust central bank buying, rising ETF inflows, and ongoing currency volatility have all contributed to sustaining gold’s bullish momentum.

Global demand dynamics remain supportive, with gold consumption crossing record levels and investment demand picking up across institutional and retail segments. This broad-based participation suggests that the rally is not fragile but structurally supported.

Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, believes investors should not wait for a perfect entry point. “Investors looking to benefit by Dhanteras should start building exposure now rather than waiting for a sharp correction that may never come. Gold continues to be supported by strong global demand across central banks, ETFs, and retail investors. With geopolitical risks and currency uncertainties still elevated, the underlying trend remains constructive. A staggered approach over the next few months can help investors participate in the uptrend while managing volatility,” he said.

Can gold deliver returns by Dhanteras?

The period between Akshaya Tritiya and Dhanteras—roughly six to seven months—offers a reasonable window for tactical gains. Market experts indicate that if global uncertainties persist, gold prices could see an additional 5–6% upside, potentially pushing domestic rates toward the ₹1,62,000–₹1,63,000 range.

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However, the near-term trajectory may not be a straight line. Price action is increasingly sensitive to global cues such as US Federal Reserve policy signals, geopolitical developments, and movements in the dollar index.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, highlighted that while the broader trend remains intact, immediate upside could be limited. “Gold prices are currently holding firm within a broader uptrend, but near-term momentum may remain range-bound as markets await fresh global cues. Akshaya Tritiya this year is unlikely to trigger a fresh rally on its own, as prices are already elevated. Investors should avoid aggressive buying at current levels and instead adopt a disciplined, staggered investment strategy. In gold, consistency and cost averaging tend to deliver better outcomes than trying to time entries,” he said.

Disciplined investing

One key difference this year is that gold is entering the festive season already near peak levels. Historically, Akshaya Tritiya has often acted as a trigger for fresh rallies. In 2026, however, much of the bullish positioning appears to be already priced in.

This shifts the strategy from opportunistic buying to disciplined allocation.

Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, emphasized the importance of separating sentiment from strategy. “As Akshaya Tritiya approaches, investors need to balance sentiment with strategy. Gold remains a valuable portfolio diversifier and hedge against inflation, supported by strong structural drivers. However, after the recent rally, prices appear extended in the short term, which could limit immediate upside. Instead of deploying large sums, investors should consider gradual accumulation and use market dips to build exposure. The focus should be on long-term allocation rather than short-term festive timing,” he said.

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Strategy for Akshaya Tritiya buyers

For investors looking to participate this Akshaya Tritiya, experts broadly converge on one approach: avoid lump-sum buying at elevated levels.

Instead:

Make a symbolic or small allocation during the festival
Accumulate gradually over the next few months
Use price corrections to add exposure
Maintain gold as part of a diversified portfolio, not a tactical trade alone
Bottom line

Gold’s ₹5,000 rally in two weeks underscores the strength of the ongoing bull cycle, but it also raises the risk of short-term consolidation. While returns by Dhanteras are possible, they are likely to be moderate and dependent on global developments.

Akshaya Tritiya, therefore, should be viewed less as a timing opportunity and more as a disciplined entry point into a long-term allocation strategy. Investors who focus on staggered buying and portfolio balance are better positioned to benefit—whether prices move gradually higher or pause before the next leg of the rally.