Could Bitcoin price surge to $95K as analyst points to a bullish MVRV setup?

Bitcoin price remained under pressure on Wednesday, but crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes the recent correction may actually be setting the stage for another rally toward $95,000 as key on-chain MVRV indicators begin flashing long-term accumulation signals.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price traded around $77,300 at press time on May 20 after slipping below the $78,000 level earlier in the session.

Despite ongoing volatility fueled by rising geopolitical tensions, persistent ETF outflows, and inflation concerns tied to surging oil prices, analysts say Bitcoin’s current setup still resembles previous accumulation phases that historically preceded major recoveries.

One of the most closely watched bullish signals this week came from Martinez’s analysis of Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio, commonly known as the MVRV ratio.

“The MVRV ratio has recently slipped below its 180-day SMA. While standard technical models view this transition as a cooling phase, I see it as a shift toward a high-conviction accumulation zone,” Martinez wrote on X.

The MVRV ratio is widely used by on-chain analysts to determine whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to the average acquisition cost of holders. Historically, periods where the MVRV ratio falls below its long-term moving average have often coincided with accumulation phases that eventually preceded major rallies.

According to Martinez, the latest signal suggests that speculative excess may now be getting flushed from the market following Bitcoin’s sharp correction from its highs above $120,000.

“When the MVRV ratio sits below the 180-day moving average, it means the market is effectively flushing out premium and pricing in a deep discount,” Martinez explained.

“Historically, these specific periods mark the exact foundation on which long-term smart money builds its positions.”

Another chart shared by the analyst focused on Bitcoin’s MVRV pricing bands, which attempt to identify potential support and resistance zones based on realized pricing behavior.

According to the data, Bitcoin could rally toward approximately $94,850 as long as the asset continues holding above the important $72,960 support region.

He also warned that losing this level could expose Bitcoin to a much steeper correction toward the realized price near $54,270.

The bullish on-chain outlook comes despite worsening short-term macroeconomic conditions that have continued weighing on broader risk appetite across financial markets.

How are oil prices and ETF outflows affecting Bitcoin sentiment?

WTI crude oil futures fell back toward $103 per barrel on Wednesday as investors assessed President Donald Trump’s renewed threat to resume military strikes on Iran if Tehran failed to accept U.S. peace conditions.

The comments came less than a day after Trump reportedly canceled a planned attack following appeals from Gulf allies, while warning that Washington could still act within “two or three days.”

The conflict has now entered its 12th week and has effectively kept the strategic Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping traffic, supporting elevated oil prices and fueling renewed inflation fears across global markets.

Higher energy prices have increased concerns that inflation could remain persistent for longer, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s timeline for future interest-rate cuts.

Investors are now closely watching upcoming Fed meeting minutes, fresh U.S. jobs data, and Nvidia’s earnings report later this week for additional clues about economic strength, inflation trends, and broader market risk appetite.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin investment products has also weakened noticeably over recent sessions.

According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $331 million in net outflows on Tuesday, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for nearly all of the withdrawals.

The latest figures extended the ETF outflow streak to three consecutive days, bringing cumulative withdrawals to nearly $1.27 billion during that period alone. Over the past two weeks, investors have pulled almost $2 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs after the products previously recorded six straight weeks of net inflows.

The heavy outflows have contributed to short-term downside pressure and reinforced broader concerns that institutional investors may be temporarily reducing exposure to risk assets amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation expectations.

Still, despite the ETF weakness, long-term holder behavior has remained relatively resilient compared to previous correction phases, helping strengthen the accumulation narrative highlighted by Martinez.

What do Bitcoin’s technical indicators suggest next?

On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues trading within a broader higher-low structure that has remained intact since the February bottom near the $60,000 region.

Price action also appears to be stabilizing above an ascending trendline support zone despite repeated selloffs over the past several months, suggesting buyers continue defending progressively higher levels.

Bitcoin is currently trading near its 50-day simple moving average around $76,000 while remaining below the 200-day SMA near $81,100. Although the broader trend remains mixed, traders are increasingly watching whether bulls can reclaim the 200-day moving average in the coming weeks.

A successful breakout above that level could strengthen confidence that Bitcoin’s correction phase is beginning to fade.

Meanwhile, the Aroon indicator is beginning to flash constructive signals. The Aroon Up currently sits near 85.7 while the Aroon Down has dropped close to zero, a setup that often reflects strengthening bullish momentum and weakening downside pressure.

Bitcoin also continues consolidating within a broader recovery structure after rebounding sharply from its February lows near $60,000.

If bulls reclaim the immediate resistance zone between $80,000 and $81,000, Bitcoin could potentially open the door for another rally toward the next major resistance cluster around $85,000.

A decisive breakout above that region may then accelerate momentum toward the MVRV-derived target near $95,000 highlighted by Martinez.

Derivatives positioning also continues showing signs that traders may still be anticipating higher prices over the medium term. CoinGlass liquidation heatmap data has continued displaying dense leveraged liquidity clusters above recent local highs, suggesting market makers could still target upside liquidity if momentum strengthens again.

However, downside risks remain significant given the fragile macro backdrop and weakening institutional flows.

If Bitcoin loses the key $72,960 support highlighted in the MVRV pricing bands, bearish momentum could intensify rapidly. Such a breakdown would likely weaken the broader higher-low structure and potentially expose BTC to deeper declines toward the $65,000 region initially.

A more severe macro-driven selloff could even increase the probability of a larger retracement toward the realized price zone near $54,000 identified by Martinez.