Blinkit stays ahead, but cracks emerge in India’s quick commerce growth story 

India’s quick commerce sector is beginning to show signs of a tougher and more competitive phase, with growth moderating for some players even as companies continue to spend heavily to gain market share.  

Recent results from Swiggy’s Instamart indicate that the battle for dominance in 10-minute delivery is becoming increasingly difficult, with the platform’s Gross Order Value (GOV) slipping sequentially to Rs 7,881 crore in Q4 from Rs 7,938 crore in the previous quarter. 

The slowdown comes at a time when competition in the segment is intensifying. Zepto, one of the fastest-growing players in the market, recently received SEBI approval to file for an IPO, despite continuing to post steep losses. The company’s losses widened 177% year-on-year to nearly Rs 3,300 crore in FY25, compared to Rs 1,249 crore in FY24, underscoring the high cash burn associated with rapid expansion in quick commerce. 

Meanwhile, newer entrants and incumbents including Flipkart Minutes, Amazon Now, and BigBasket are expanding their presence, though with relatively measured strategies compared to the aggressive scale-up seen in earlier phases of the market. Analysts say the sector is now entering a stage where companies are being forced to balance growth ambitions with operational discipline and profitability. 

Among the major players, Blinkit remains the only profitable platform so far. Its Net Order Value (NOV) increased to Rs 14,386 crore in Q4 from Rs 13,300 crore in the previous quarter. However, even Blinkit’s rapid growth appears to be moderating, with NOV growth slowing to 95% year-on-year in Q4FY26 from 120% in Q4FY25. 

Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa said the moderation was expected given the company’s significantly larger scale. According to Dhindsa, Blinkit delivered a 104% CAGR in NOV between FY23 and FY26, and the company expects growth to remain above 60% CAGR over the next three years. He added that quick commerce penetration in India is still limited largely to the top 15-20 cities and a relatively narrow set of categories, leaving significant room for expansion. 

At the same time, companies are becoming more cautious about pursuing growth through deep discounting and incentives. Swiggy recently rolled back its no-fee campaign, signalling a shift toward more sustainable economics rather than purely volume-led expansion. In its shareholder communication, the company noted that while higher incentives can temporarily accelerate growth in a large addressable market, such strategies may not be sustainable given the high operating and delivery costs associated with quick commerce. 

The evolving market dynamics are raising broader questions around how and when quick commerce platforms can achieve meaningful profitability without sustained cash burn. While demand for instant delivery continues to grow, companies are increasingly being tested on their ability to improve unit economics, expand beyond grocery-led consumption, and retain users without relying excessively on discounts. 

Speaking to Business Today, Aakash Agrawal, Aakash Agrawal, Head of Digital and New Age Business at Anand Rathi Investment Banking said India’s quick commerce sector is entering a more mature phase after the hyper-growth witnessed over the past two to three years. According to him, penetration across affluent urban clusters is already high, which means growth rates are naturally beginning to moderate from an elevated base. 

“The next leg of expansion will likely come from increasing wallet share, improving frequency, and driving deeper penetration into Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities rather than just adding new metro users,” Agrawal said. 

He added that the moderation seen in the growth trajectories of Blinkit and Instamart should not be interpreted as a sign of weakening structural demand. Instead, he attributed it largely to rising competitive intensity and a broader normalisation after an exceptionally strong growth cycle. 

“The category is moving from a ‘land-grab mode’ to a more balanced phase where execution quality, assortment, and unit economics matter more than pure speed of expansion,” he explained. 

On profitability, Agrawal noted that the economics of quick commerce are fundamentally driven by order frequency, average order value (AOV), and basket assortment. While logistics efficiency and delivery density have improved significantly, particularly in dense metro markets, the next challenge for platforms is improving the quality and value of consumer baskets. 

“Blinkit’s stronger profitability trajectory is partly driven by its higher AOV. For other players, increasing AOV by 20-25% will be critical to improving economics,” he said. “Beyond that, profitability can improve further through better basket assortment — especially higher-margin categories — and incremental increases in purchase frequency from existing users.” 

Agrawal believes the next phase of growth for quick commerce may come from categories beyond groceries. Higher-margin segments such as beauty and personal care, pharmacy, electronics accessories, pet care, and impulse-led lifestyle purchases are already seeing strong traction across platforms. Food-delivery adjacencies and instant-consumption categories are also emerging as important demand drivers. 

“Over time, quick commerce could evolve into a broader convenience infrastructure layer rather than remaining just a grocery delivery business,” he said.