‘You’d probably think we’re in a bull market but … ‘: What Nithin Kamath said about listed brokers

Zerodha founder and CEO Nithin Kamath has flagged mixed signals in the market, noting that while listed brokerage firms may suggest a bullish environment, underlying data paints a more nuanced picture.

“If you look at listed brokers, you’d probably think we are in a bull market, but the data shows something else. In fact, there are a lot of conflicting signals. Cash market turnover is still below where it peaked in late 2024. Net direct equity inflows, for example, are negative for the first time since FY19,” he said in a long X (formerly Twitter) post which included data sets.

“So where is there so much enthusiasm around capital markets related investment themes? Could be the strong equity mutual fund flows and SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) flows. Gross SIP flows are at a record ~32,000 crores. But the major brokers offer direct mutual funds, so they don’t make anything, including us,” Kamath added.

“Speculative activity has held up despite everything. The MTF book across the industry has grown significantly. Our own book has grown from 0 to ~7000 crores in about 1.5 years,” he also said.

“Brokerage income as a ratio of client float for most listed brokers is around 40 per cent or above. With us, it’s sub 9 per cent. That means clients are trading far more with these platforms relative to the funds they hold there,” Kamath mentioned.

“Could be all triggers and nudges to trade? Our own philosophy has always been to not push or induce customers to trade. In trading, for most people, fewer trades are always better. That means leaving a lot of revenue on the table. Whether that’s the right call, time will tell. So is it a bull market? The answer is it depends on where you are looking,” the Zerodha CEO further stated.

Meanwhile, domestic benchmark indices rose sharply on Wednesday after crude oil prices declined on hopes of a possible truce between Iran and the United States, boosting overall market sentiment.