Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: Gift Nifty up 116 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices set to extend gains on Wednesday after reports the US is seeking a month-long ceasefire in its war with Iran and has presented Tehran with a 15-point plan, raising ​hopes that the weeks-long conflict may ease. The signals spurred the expectations of ease in supply disruptions.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 115.60 points, or 0.50 per cent, up at 23,044, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian stocks rose on Wednesday amid ceasefire signals in war in West Asia. Nikkei rose over 2.5 per cent, while KOSPI jumped over 2 per cent. Hang Seng was up half a per cent.

Indian currency remains under pressure due to elevated oil price and geopolitical uncertainties, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “Key factors to monitor for market direction will include movements in crude oil prices, trends in FIIs flows, and developments in United States–Iran negotiations, which are likely to be the primary drivers.”

Wall Street shares lost ground in Tuesday’s volatile session as investors swayed between fears of rising ​oil prices and hopes for a resolution to the West Asia war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 84.41 points, or 0.18 per cent, to 46,124.06, the S&P 500 lost 24.63 points, or 0.37 per cent, to 6,556.37 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 184.86 points, or 0.84 per cent, ‌to 21,761.89.

Oil prices dropped over 5 per cent on Wednesday ‌on the prospect of a possible ceasefire easing supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region after reports the US sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war between them. Brent crude futures fell 5.9 per cent, to $98.28 a barrel, while US ​West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 5.1 per cent at $87.68 a barrel.

Currency markets showed signs of fatigue early in ​Asian trade on Wednesday, with traders cautious over US President Donald Trump’s efforts to bring an ‌end to the war with Iran. The dollar index was down 0.1 per cent ​at 99.126, while gold rose nearly 1.2 per cent in early trade. Bitcoin managed to remain above $70,000.

Sentiment improved after reports of easing tensions between the US and Iran, including a proposed five-day ceasefire, which helped cool crude oil prices from elevated levels, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “Participants are advised to continue with a hedged approach and maintain positions on both sides until there is greater clarity on the next directional move.”

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 8,009.56 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,867.15 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The 22,600-22,500 zone is expected to provide immediate support and may cushion minor declines. A decisive breach below this range could weaken the prevailing chart structure and trigger downside pressure. On the flip side, the 23,070-23,100 band is likely to act as an intermediate resistance, while a significant hurdle is seen within the bearish gap zone of 23380-23620, said Angel One.

“Investors should closely monitor geopolitical developments, as they are likely to act as key catalysts in shaping near-term market direction. In the interim, a cautious approach is recommended, avoiding complacent positions while selectively identifying accumulation opportunities in fundamentally sound stocks from a medium-term investment perspective,” it adds.

Technically, Nifty closed with an indecisive candle, indicating that the direction of the next move remains uncertain, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. A negative opening on Wednesday may create bearish sentiment in the market, while a positive opening could indicate positive sentiment for the short term, he added.

The immediate support for Nifty is placed in the 22,750–22,800 zone, while resistance is observed in the 23,050–23,100 range. The RSI is at 34.08 and is showing signs of recovery from oversold levels, said Jitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. “While early indications of a rebound are visible, a sustained move above the mentioned resistance zone would be required to confirm strengthening momentum.”
 

Nifty Bank outlook 

Nifty Bank formed a small-bodied candle with shadows on both sides, indicating a phase of indecision after the recent pullback, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

“The zone of 53,000–53,100 will act as an immediate resistance area. A sustained move above 53,100 could lead to extension of the pullback rally towards the 53,600 level in the near term. On the downside, the zone of 52,200–52,100 is placed as a crucial support region.”

Nifty Bank formed a bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low signalling a pullback after previous session sharp decline. Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near term, driven by rising geopolitical tensions, and rising crude oil prices which continue to weigh on overall market sentiment, said Bajaj Broking.

It is likely to consolidate in the range of 51400-54,700 in the coming sessions. While a breach below 51,400 will open further downside towards 50,700 and 50,000. Index need to form higher high and higher low on a sustained basis and closed above the 54,700 levels to signal a pause in the downward trend,” it adds.