Yogi coming back in 2027? Axis My India’s Pradeep Gupta drops first big prediction for UP

With Uttar Pradesh still nearly a year away from the 2027 assembly election, Axis My India Chairman Pradeep Gupta said Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath currently faces “no major problems” in the state. He, however, cautioned that political equations in the state can shift rapidly.

“In UP, the satisfaction quotient is good as of now; based on that, there seems to be no major problems. But Uttar Pradesh is a different kind of state; things change quickly there,” Gupta said in an exclusive interview with PTI.

Asked whether caste could again emerge as a decisive factor in the 2027 contest, Gupta said it would continue to shape electoral outcomes, but argued governance and the absence of a strong alternative also influence voter behaviour.

“Caste will also remain a factor. People see performance. People also see if this government is not performing, then who else is available better than this? it works that way,” he said.

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Uttar Pradesh is scheduled to vote in 2027. The ruling BJP would be seeking a third consecutive term under Yogi Adityanath.

The BJP had retained power in the 2022 assembly election by winning 255 of the state’s 403 seats, while its allies took the NDA tally to 273. The Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav emerged as the principal opposition with 111 seats, while the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party were reduced to two and one seat respectively.

The result marked the first time in decades that an incumbent government in Uttar Pradesh returned to power, handing Adityanath a second straight term. The BJP’s victory was widely seen as an endorsement of its welfare and development agenda despite opposition attempts to focus on inflation, unemployment, and anti-incumbency.

Gupta also discussed the BJP’s sweeping victory in the 2026 West Bengal assembly election, where the saffron party won 207 of 293 seats and unseated Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress government, reducing the TMC to 80 seats.

“The BJP’s organisational structure, especially, I don’t mean it in any personal way, but full credit goes to one person, that is Amit Shah, without him it would not have happened. After the 2021 defeat (in West Bengal), they learned many lessons from it. Having workers present on the ground is very important,” he said.

Referring to voting patterns in Bengal, Gupta said, “People talk about Muslim consolidation, but this time Muslims also moved away from TMC; Humayun Kabir’s party won 2 seats, Left also got seats; performance matters in the end.”

He also rejected the argument that elections are decided solely through religious consolidation. “Whenever BJP wins, some people always say it is due to Hindu consolidation, when they lose, they say Hindus were divided; victory and defeat not decided on Hindu, Muslim issues; Modi as PM, BJP’s repeat governments in other states…voters view good governance, good delivery. I have the statistics (to show); voters felt TMC cannot deliver,” Gupta said.