XRP price could fall toward $1.03 without breaking long-term uptrend: analyst

XRP has fallen to around $1.16 after losing more than 3% in a day, while an analyst argues that a retreat toward the $1.03 area could form part of a longer consolidation rather than the start of a deeper downtrend.

According to data from crypto.news, XRP (XRP) price traded near $1.16 on June 4, extending a pullback that has accompanied renewed weakness across the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly slipped below $62,000 during the session as risk appetite deteriorated amid concerns over global growth, elevated oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path.

The decline comes even as the XRP Ledger ecosystem prepares for another network upgrade. Earlier this week, XRP Ledger Operations announced that version 3.2.0 will soon be deployed, introducing a transition from the long-running “rippled” software name to “xrpld.”

Infrastructure providers, validators, and node operators will be required to update their systems ahead of the migration.

Commenting on the latest price structure, crypto analyst The Great Mattsby argued that XRP may be approaching a key technical test on higher timeframes.

“At this point it would make sense for $XRP to backtest the monthly cloud around 1.03.”

The analyst added that traders familiar with market structure and Ichimoku analysis should not view the setup as bearish from a macro perspective, describing the current chart as a prolonged consolidation phase.

Monthly Ichimoku cloud highlights $1.03 as key support

The monthly Ichimoku chart shared by The Great Mattsby shows XRP trading above a major support zone created by the cloud structure that has developed over several years.

A move toward $1.03 would place the token near the upper region of that support area and could serve as a backtest of a level that previously acted as resistance before the latest rally.

On the daily timeframe, XRP remains below the Supertrend indicator, which currently sits near $1.34. The indicator has remained in bearish territory since late May and continues to cap recovery attempts. Any sustained rebound would likely require buyers to reclaim that level before attention shifts toward the $1.45-$1.50 region.

Momentum indicators have also weakened. The daily MACD remains below the zero line, while the signal line continues to trade above the MACD line. Histogram bars have expanded into negative territory, showing that selling pressure has yet to fully subside.

Recent derivatives activity has reinforced the cautious outlook. Leveraged long positions across the market faced another round of liquidations during the latest crypto sell-off, reducing speculative exposure and contributing to weaker price action across major altcoins, including XRP.

Recovery above $1.34 would improve the technical outlook

Despite the recent decline, several developments continue to support the long-term XRP narrative. The upcoming XRP Ledger 3.2.0 upgrade follows the successful activation of version 3.1.3 in May, which introduced the fixCleanup3_1_3 amendment and improved network reliability after receiving full validator consensus.

Institutional adoption of Ripple’s ecosystem has also expanded in recent months through the growth of RLUSD and additional infrastructure partnerships. While those developments have not translated into immediate price strength, they have helped maintain attention on the XRP ecosystem during a period of heightened market volatility.

Downside risks remain tied to both technical and macroeconomic factors. A decisive break below the $1.03 support area would weaken the consolidation thesis presented by Ichimoku analysts and expose XRP to a deeper retracement toward psychological support near $1.00.

External risks could also add pressure. Higher energy prices, escalating geopolitical tensions, and any indication that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer could weigh on risk assets and limit demand for cryptocurrencies.

For now, traders appear focused on whether XRP can stabilize above the monthly cloud support region. While a drop toward $1.03 would represent another leg lower from current levels, proponents of the bullish long-term view argue that such a move would remain consistent with XRP’s existing macro structure unless that support ultimately fails.