J&K’s spring rainfall deficit still at 24%

Srinagar, May 1: Substantial precipitation in March and April has reduced Jammu and Kashmir’s rainfall deficit for the spring season to 24 percent after an exceptionally dry winter.

Data from the Meteorological Department (MET) show that the Jammu division recorded near-normal rainfall, with an 18 percent deficit, while the Kashmir division posted a 31 percent shortfall, categorized as a “deficit.”

The improvement in spring comes after a severe winter dry spell from November to February, when the region recorded a 68 percent precipitation deficit – classified as a “large deficit.”

Jammu and Kashmir divisions had logged shortfalls of 69 percent and 67 percent, respectively, during that period.

Between March and April, Jammu received 188.25 mm of rainfall against a normal of 229.74 mm.

Kashmir recorded 162.7 mm, compared with a normal of 238.48 mm.

Under meteorological classifications, rainfall between minus 19 percent and plus 19 percent is considered normal, while deficits between minus 20 percent and minus 59 percent fall in the “deficit” category.

Anything beyond minus 60 percent is termed a “large deficit.”

In Kashmir, most districts remained in the deficit category, including Anantnag (-46 percent), Budgam (-40 percent), Bandipora (-27 percent), Kulgam (-52 percent), Pulwama (-32 percent) and Srinagar (-27 percent). Shopian recorded a steep -71 percent deficit, placing it in the large deficit category.

Baramulla (-13 percent), Ganderbal (-7 percent) and Kupwara (-10 percent) recorded near-normal rainfall.

In the Jammu division, Kathua saw a -61 percent shortfall, placing it in the large deficit category. Other districts, including Doda (-31 percent), Jammu (-23 percent), Kishtwar (-33 percent), Ramban (-24 percent) and Udhampur (-32 percent), remained in deficit.

Reasi (-12 percent) recorded normal rainfall, while Poonch (+21 percent), Rajouri (+11 percent) and Samba (+58 percent) reported excess precipitation.

Neighbouring Ladakh, which had recorded a 51 percent winter deficit, experienced normal rainfall during March and April, along with moderate snowfall in higher reaches.

Mukhtar Ahmad, the Director of the MET, said the spring precipitation helped break the prolonged dry spell by replenishing glaciers and water bodies and lowering temperatures that had remained above seasonal averages earlier in the year.

“This has also brought relief to farmers as agricultural activities are underway,” Ahmad said.

However, the official cautioned that the large winter deficit cannot be fully offset.

 “Reduced snowfall in higher elevations has weakened the snowpack, which is already melting. While this may temporarily boost water levels in streams and rivers, a prolonged dry spell later in the season could affect irrigation,” a weather official said.

“The cumulative deficit from November to April remains above 70 percent, which falls in the ‘large deficient’ category,” the official said.

“It is premature to forecast May, but adequate precipitation would help ensure sufficient groundwater and river flow even if June and July turn hot.”

The MET has already forecast another western disturbance for May 3–4, expected to bring fresh rainfall to the region.