Price targets out! Why Axis Direct is bullish on NTPC, NLC India and JSW Energy

NTPC, NLC India, JSW Energy price targets: Power and utilities firms such as NTPC, NLC India and JSW Energy reported a strong set of earnings in the March 2026 quarter. A steady pickup in electricity demand also kept the earnings in good shape. 

India’s renewable energy and transmission sectors continued to expand strongly in FY26, driven by ambitious government targets and rising clean energy demand.

According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), India’s installed wind power capacity is projected to increase from 56 GW in March 2026 to 73 GW by FY27 and 122 GW by FY32. Achieving these goals will require annual additions of around 10 GW, in line with the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy’s tendering plans. During FY26, the country added 6.05 GW of wind capacity. Of the more than 19 GW of renewable energy projects awarded through tenders during the year, nearly 11.5 GW comprised wind and Firm & Dispatchable Renewable Energy (FDRE) projects.

Transmission infrastructure also saw steady growth. India added 12,139 circuit kilometers (ckm) of transmission lines in FY26, up 2 percent year-on-year, though below the revised target of 15,382 ckm due to right-of-way challenges. Total transmission line capacity reached 5,07,414 ckm by April 2026.

Substation capacity additions stood at 1,13,013 MVA in FY26, an 8 percent increase from the previous year, taking the country’s total substation capacity to 14,61,851 MVA.

While the government is gradually phasing out Interstate Transmission System (ISTS) charge waivers, the impact on transmission demand is expected to be limited as renewable energy expansion remains a key priority and solar power continues to be highly cost-competitive.

Here is a look at the stock outlook of three key players in the power and utilities sector by brokerage Axis Direct.   

1. NTPC (19% upside)

The brokerage has a price target of Rs 430 with a buy call. 

NTPC significantly expanded its generation portfolio during FY26, with installed capacity rising by 9,178 MW to reach 89,108 MW as of March 31, 2026. The addition included 3,690 MW of net thermal capacity, aided by the acquisition of the 1,350 MW Sinnar thermal project through the corporate insolvency resolution process (CIRP) in partnership with MAHAGENCO during the fourth quarter. Renewable energy contributed the remaining 5,488 MW of new capacity. The company currently has around 34.2 GW of projects under construction, comprising 16.5 GW of thermal capacity, 2.6 GW of hydro and pumped storage projects, and nearly 15 GW of renewable energy assets.

On the thermal front, NTPC plans to add 5.5 GW of capacity between FY27 and FY29. 

Renewable energy remains a key growth driver. NTPC Green Energy Ltd. (NGEL) added 4,225 MW of renewable capacity in FY26, up sharply from 2,977 MW in FY25. The group aims to commission around 8 GW of renewable capacity annually over FY27-FY29, supported by a development pipeline of approximately 24.8 GW through subsidiaries and joint ventures. NTPC has reaffirmed its target of achieving 60 GW of renewable energy capacity by FY32, backed by the government’s decision to raise the investment approval limit for its renewable energy subsidiaries to Rs 20,000 crore.

2.  NLC India (14.58% upside)

The brokerage has a price target of Rs 385 with a buy call. 

The company’s thermal and lignite power portfolio continues to progress steadily. The 660 MW Unit III at the Ghatampur Thermal Power Station is currently undergoing trial operations and is expected to achieve commercial operation in June 2026. Once commissioned, the entire 1,980 MW project, comprising three 660 MW units, will become fully operational. The first two units have demonstrated strong performance, with Unit I, commissioned in December 2024, and Unit II, commissioned in December 2025, both recording plant availability factors (PAF) exceeding 80 percent.

On the renewable energy front, installed capacity stood at 1,734 MW at the end of FY26. The company currently has around 1.76 GW of renewable projects under construction and an additional pipeline of 2.34 GW. It is targeting a substantial scale-up to nearly 10 GW of renewable capacity by FY30.

Importantly, all renewable projects have been secured through competitive bidding processes, with power purchase agreements (PPAs) to be executed with respective utilities, significantly reducing offtake risks. Major upcoming renewable energy milestones include the commissioning of a 600 MW Gujarat project by September 2026, a 200 MW CPSU project by December 2026, and an 810 MW Rajasthan project by March 2028. To support its long-term renewable expansion plans, the company is also planning an initial public offering (IPO) of NIRL in FY27.

3. JSW Energy (8% upside)

The brokerage has a price target of Rs 630 with a buy call.

JSW Energy continued to strengthen its generation portfolio during Q4FY26, with installed capacity increasing by 118 MW to 13.5 GW, reflecting growth of 24 percent year-on-year and 1 percent sequentially. The expansion was primarily driven by renewable energy additions, including hybrid projects. During FY26, the company added a total of 2.6 GW of capacity, split equally between organic and inorganic growth. Organic additions included 240 MW of wind capacity, 305 MW of solar, 451 MW of hybrid projects, and 240 MW of hydro capacity, while the acquisition of O2 Power’s renewable energy assets contributed another 1.3 GW.

As demand for reliable baseload power gains importance, JSW Energy is advancing its thermal power portfolio. The company is developing the 3.2 GW Salboni thermal project in West Bengal, comprising two phases of 1,600 MW each, along with the 1,800 MW brownfield KSK project.

Despite ongoing grid and regulatory challenges across the renewable energy sector, JSW Energy remains relatively insulated from near-term execution risks. Renewable energy curtailment losses were limited to around Rs 50 crore in FY26 and are expected to be fully addressed by July 2026, supported by permanent General Network Access (GNA) tariff protection.