How Adani stocks erased Hindenburg scars, reclaimed January 2023 levels

Adani stocks have finally fully recovered from the $150 billion rout in the group’s market capitalisation, more than three years after Hindenburg Research released its scathing report. The combined market capitalisation of the 10 Adani group stocks (excluding Sanghi Industries), which stood at Rs 19,19,888.44 crore on January 24, 2023, surpassed that level to reach Rs 19,73,482.01 crore at Wednesday’s close, helped largely by gains in Adani Power and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, both of which more than doubled during the period, according to data compiled by Business Today from corporate database AceEquity.

Adani Power Ltd now stands at Rs 248.75, commanding an m-cap of Rs 4,79,706.78 crore. This is 352.60 per cent higher than Rs 1,05,988.68 crore market cap it enjoyed three years ago. Adani Ports has climbed 140 per cent to Rs 1,824.30 from Rs 760.85 level then. Adani Enterprises Ltd (AEL), the group’s flagship at Rs 2,972.60, is still 11 per cent lower than its 2023 levels.

Adani Green Energy Ltd, ACC Ltd, Adani Energy Solutions Ltd, New Delhi Television Ltd, AWL Agri Business Ltd and Adani Total Gas Ltd are still 22-79 per cent lower than 2023 levels.

PL Capital’s Head Advisory Vikram Kasat said Adani Enterprises Ltd, Adani Power Ltd and Adani Ports are its top Adani stock picks. In the case of flagship AEL, he said infrastructure and utility businesses contributed 80 per cent of AEL’s FY26 Ebitda, with the Adani firm now entering a value-unlock phase through planned demergers of airports, roads, and the ANIL platform.

Adani Power, Kasat said, has guided for Ebitda of Rs 50,000 crore by FY30–31, driven by capacity additions and improving cash flows. “To support expansion, APL plans capex of Rs 25,000 Cr in FY27 and Rs 33,000 crore in FY28. Net debt stood at Rs 45,022 crore in FY26 following expansion-led borrowings, though management expects strong future cash generation and potential deleveraging
towards becoming debt-free by FY32–33,” Kasat of PL Capital said.

In the case of Adani Green, the portfolio benefits from long-term 25-year PPAs, with over 90 per cent of future additions expected to remain PPA-linked. AGEL continued to expand its renewable and storage pipeline, including a planned 10 GWh BESS expansion involving Rs 15,000 crore capex.

How Adani stocks erased Hindenburg scars
A lot has changed since the 2023 Hindenburg episode, with the Nate Anderson-led short seller even disbanding his research team in January 2025. Analysts noted pledged shares were a key concern during 2023 short-seller event, with a fear they could lead to a domino effect. 

“Since then there has been a dramatic drop across companies. Promoter holding- no major change but additional fund infusion by promoter- Adani Green at Rs 1,480 per share and Ambuja at Rs 418 per share with warrants issued in ‘24 and ‘22 respectively- are in line with current prices,” Bernstein in a recent note pointed out. 

Adani stocks have even absorbed US SEC-DoJ related developments starting November 2024. AEL recently informed NSE and BSE that it has reached a settlement with the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) in an alleged sanctions violation related matter.

In the Hindenburg case, another concern in 2023 was a rise in debt levels. Net debt to Ebitda during short seller event was 4.4, it fell sharply to 2.7 during the US event but now back up again to 3.9. On source of debt, group shifted from banks to bonds between FY16 and FY23. However, post the two events limited dollar fund raises happened, but, now dollar funding support could start again,” Bernstein said.