Why JPMorgan upped target price for Tata group’s share taking compounder

JPMorgan, in a fresh note on Titan Company Ltd, Rekha Jhunjhunwala’s largest stock holding, upgraded its rating and target price for the Tata group company, calling it a “moat-led, share-taking compounder with execution.” The foreign brokerage raised its rating on the stock to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ and increased its target price to Rs 5,400 for September 2027 from Rs 4,700 for March 2027 earlier.

A key differentiator in Titan’s playbook is its ability to sustain growth in a high-gold environment via levers that keep jewellery ‘accessible’ alongside demand-shaping programs such as exchange and grammage purchase plan, JPMorgan said. Amongst the other businesses, watches and TEAL continue to drive good growth for Titan, it mentioned.

“We raise FY27-28EEPS by 4 per cent/6 per cent led by revenue upgrade and move our rating to Overweight (from Neutral) with a new Sep-27 target of Rs 5,400 (20 per cent upside). We believe 13 per cent/20 per cent revenue/EPS CAGR over FY26-28E will support stock outperformance. On valuations, the stock is trading lower than other discretionary peers (D-Mart, Trent, Nykaa) providing relative comfort as well,” JPMorgan said.

Rekha Jhunjhunwala held 4,71,84,470 shares, or a 5.31 per cent stake, in Titan Company as of March 31. At Friday’s closing price of Rs 4,517, the holding was valued at Rs 21,313 crore.

In a rising gold price environment, margins fade given the mix impact, the foreign brokerage said. This, it said, was at play over the past two years. Assuming gold prices stabilize, margin for domestic jewellery
will likely sustain at per cent 11 per cent, JPMorgan projected. There is definitely headroom to improve margin for overseas operations (from 1.6 per cent in FY26) to MSD as scale increases and the Damas acquisition gets streamlined, it said.

“We expect watches to sustain current margin levels while building in 100 basis points (bps) expansion for the eyewear business,” JPMorgan said.

Meanwhile, Titan’s FY26 exit is said to be strong, with Q4 top-line growth showcasing broad-based momentum across businesses and brands, reinforcing confidence in execution strength and brand equity. 

“The core jewelry franchise remains underpinned by structural tailwinds-sector formalization (TTAN saw a 50-60 basis points market share gain in FY26), expanded brand play to capture various customer cohorts, sustained design-led innovation (e.g., natural gemstone jewelry foray to diversify beyond traditional coins/gold/studded), and a widening of the distribution footprint to support the medium-term ambition of 15-20 per cent growth over a 3-5 year period,” JPMorgan said.

Near-term demand indicators are said to be constructive, as buyer growth rebounded in Q4, attributed to customers re-entering amid rising gold, wedding purchase advancement, and improved studded traction aided by campaign effectiveness.