With EU’s new oil curbs, India’s refined fuel exports face steep $5 billion risk: GTRI

India’s $15 billion fuel exports to the European Union could take a hit as Brussels clamps down on imports of petroleum products refined from Russian crude even if processed outside Russia, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

In its latest, 18th sanctions package, the 27-member EU introduced fresh curbs targeting Russian oil revenues. A key measure includes banning the import of refined petroleum products made from Russian crude, even if processed in third countries. Only a few allies like the US, UK, Canada, and Switzerland are exempt.

The GTRI warned that this move could severely impact countries like India, Turkey, and the UAE, which have been refining Russian oil and exporting fuel such as diesel, petrol, and jet fuel to Europe.

“India’s $5 billion exports of petroleum products to the EU are at risk. The EU’s new sanctions ban imports of refined petroleum made from Russian crude via third countries like India,” said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava.

India exported $19.2 billion worth of petroleum products to the EU in FY24, but this dropped 27.1% to $15 billion in FY25, the think tank said.

It also noted that India imported $50.3 billion worth of Russian crude in FY25, making up over a third of its total $143.1 billion crude oil bill.

“Although India continues to engage in legitimate trade with Russia, the political optics of such transactions are shifting in Western capitals. As energy ties deepen, India will have to walk a fine line between economic pragmatism and geopolitical pressure,” Srivastava added.

(With inputs from PTI)