Vedanta, HZL, Tata Steel, Hindalco, Jindal Steel, SAIL, NMDC: Q4 results preview

Ahead of the kick start of March quarter results, Nuvama Institutional Equities said Vedanta Ltd, Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) and NMDC Ltd are its three top picks from metals & mining sector, based on Q4 earnings expectations. 
For Vedanta, Nuvama expects adjusted net profit surging 120.60 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 8,108 crore on 20.2 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 48,624 crore. Hindustan Zinc is seen clocking 59.4 per cent YoY growth in net profit at Rs 4,742 crore on 34.3 per cent YoY jump in sales at Rs 12,142 crore. NMDC, it said, may report 26.5 per cent YoY rise in profit at Rs 1,893 crore on 40.6 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 9,775 crore.

Steel players such as Tata Steel Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, SAIL and Jindal Stainless Ltd are seen reporting 35-66 per cent YoY rise in net profit for the March quarter. Coal India and GMDC are seen reporting single-digit drop in Q4 profits. 

Nuvama said the quarter saw average LME zinc and aluminium price rising 2 per cent and 13 per cent sequentially to $3,240 per tonne and $3,193 per tonne, respectively. Silver prices, it said, rose 52 per cent QoQ to $83.7 per ounce. 

The domestic brokerage said Hindalco’s India Ebitda (including Utkal Alumina) is likely to increase 9 per cent QoQ, led by higher aluminium price. Novelis’s core Ebitda, without adjusting Oswego fire impact, is expected to increase 23 per cent QoQ to $29 million driven by higher volume (up 5 per cent QoQ), improved scrap spread and lower tariff impact.  “We expect HZL’s Ebitda to rise 21 per cent QoQ driven by higher volumes, lower CoP and higher commodity prices. Vedanta’s Ebitda to rise 20 per cent QoQ, primarily led by aluminium and zinc prices,” Nuvama said. 

Among ferrous players, Nuvama said Q4FY26 Ebitda of all steel companies may rise 16–70 per cent QoQ, driven by higher sequential average blended realisation per tonne of Rs 3,000-4,000 and volume growth of 2.5–10 per cent, driven by improved demand. 

“However, we note average retail steel price rose Rs 6,300–9,800/tonne QoQ, much higher than what steel companies might report amid project-led sales and contracts. Coking coal cost is likely to increase
$15–20/t and iron marginally by Rs 100/t QoQ. Overall, EBITDA/t increase to be the highest for SAIL and lowest for Tata Steel. Jindal Steel’s increase in Ebitda/t to be lower than expected as lower steel prices, one-time commissioning cost of new capacities may increase QoQ,” Nuvama said.

The brokerage forecast Tata Steel Europe to report an Ebitda loss.

Meanwhile, in the case of mining companies, NMDC is seen reporting 15 per cent YoY increase in Ebitda  due to higher sales volume (up 21 per cent YoY to 15.3mt) partially offset by fall in realisation/tonne (down 6.5 per cent YoY to Rs 4,685/t). 

Coal India’s Ebitda is seen to rising 9 per cent YoY, primarily due to lower CoP. Volumes likely to fall 1.4 per cent YoY) while blended realisation is seen improving 1.4 per cent YoY.