Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 30 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open slightly higher on Thursday, buoyed by expectations that the US trade deal will revive foreign inflows, while investors track quarterly earnings and a sell-off in software stocks globally. Investors will keep an eye on IT stocks amid concerns over global IT rout.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 30.30 points, or 0.12 per cent, up at 25,818.50, hinting at a weak start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian stocks faltered as concerns about the exploding costs of AI investment hounded the tech sector. KOSPI tanked more than 3 per cent, while Nikkei and Hang Seng were down a per cent each.

“Investors would track the interest rate decisions of BOE and ECB. We expect Indian markets to remain firm with positive bias, with sector/stock specific action, driven by recent trade deals, Union Budget announcements and the ongoing Q3 earnings season,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

US stocks ended lower on Wednesday as investors worried about pricey valuations and whether Wall Street’s AI rally has reached its peak. The S&P 500 declined 0.51 per cent to end the session at 6,882.72 points. The Nasdaq fell 1.51 per cent to 22,904.58 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.53 per cent to 49,501.30 points.

Oil prices fell on Thursday after two straight days of gains as the US and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, despite differences about the agenda. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4 per cent to $64.23 per barrel, while Brent crude futures also dropped 1.4 per cent to $68.47 per barrel.

Gold and silver prices were up a little in early trade after an epic implosion last Friday that saw the two plunging from lofty record highs. Gold rose 0.3 per cent to $4,976 an ounce while silver inched up 0.2 per cent to $88.20 an ounce.

The dollar steadied at the start of Asian trade on Thursday. The US dollar index was up 0.2 per cent at 96.671. On the other hand, the Indian rupee is likely to open little changed on Thursday, tracking Asian peers, with traders expecting importer dollar demand to limit gains sparked by New Delhi and Washington clinching a long-awaited trade deal.

Sentiment stayed cautious amid mixed global cues and some profit booking following the recent relief rally. Weakness in global technology stocks weighed on domestic IT counters, leading to sectoral divergence, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “Participants should focus on stock selection and disciplined trade management.”

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 29.79 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyer of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 249.54 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Intraday charts indicate non-directional activity, reflecting indecisiveness between bulls and bears. We are of the view that, on the higher side, 25,800/83,900 or the 50-day SMA would act as crucial resistance zones, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

“If the market manages to trade above these levels, it could move up to 25,900–26,000/84,200-84,500. Conversely, below 25,600/83,100, it could slip to 25,500–25,350/82,800-82,500. The current market texture is non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders,” he said.

A small bullish candle has formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadow, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. “The underlying short-term trend of the Nifty continues to be positive. The next upside hurdles to be watched are around 26,000 and next 26,350 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 25,600.”
 

Nifty Bank outlook

The overall chart structure remains bullish, favoring a buy-on-dip strategy as long as Nifty Bank holds above its short-term crucial 20-day and 50-day moving averages, said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. “RSI has closed above its falling trendline resistance, supporting positive momentum. The immediate support is placed at 59,800, while resistance is seen near 60,800.”

The immediate resistance is placed in the 60,500–60,600 zone for Bank Nifty, a crucial supply area to watch, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. “Any sustained move above this zone could lead to it continuing its up move on the upside towards 61,000, followed by 61,300. On the downside, the zone of 59,800–59,700 zone is likely to act as a strong support.”