Seventh Straight Winter Deficit: Jammu Kashmir Records 65 Per Cent Rainfall Shortfall | Kashmir Life

SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh consecutive winter rainfall deficit, with the core winter season from December 2025 to February 2026 ending 65 per cent below normal, making it one of the driest winters in recent record.

According to data compiled by Kashmir Weather, the region received just 100.6 mm of precipitation against a normal of 284.9 mm during the three-month period.

February proved particularly severe, registering an 89 per cent deficit. The region recorded only 14.2 mm of rainfall against a normal of 130.4 mm, sharply dragging down the overall seasonal total. December was also largely dry, with a 78 per cent deficit after recording 13.0 mm against a normal of 59.4 mm. January saw some activity from Western Disturbances and fared relatively better, but still ended 23 per cent below normal at 73.4 mm against 95.1 mm.

The latest figures confirm that every winter since 2019–20 has ended below normal. The seasonal deficits over the past seven winters stand at minus 20 per cent in 2019–20, minus 37 per cent in 2020–21, minus 8 per cent in 2021–22, minus 34 per cent in 2022–23, minus 54 per cent in 2023–24, minus 45 per cent in 2024–25 and minus 65 per cent in 2025–26.

By contrast, winters prior to 2019 showed healthier precipitation trends. The 2016–17 winter recorded a 29 per cent surplus, while 2018–19 logged a 36 per cent surplus. The winter of 2012–13 also ended 14 per cent above normal.

District-wise data indicates widespread deficits across both Kashmir and Jammu divisions. In Kashmir division, Shopian recorded an 82 per cent deficit, Kulgam 80 per cent and Budgam 71 per cent. Srinagar logged 84.2 mm against a normal of 236.5 mm, a 64 per cent shortfall. In Jammu division, Kishtwar recorded a 90 per cent deficit, while Kathua, Ramban and Jammu district each registered deficits exceeding 60 per cent. Only Poonch reported a relatively lower deficit at 21 per cent.

Winter precipitation is critical for the Union Territory as snowfall in higher reaches feeds rivers and springs, recharges groundwater systems and sustains irrigation for orchards and crops. Reduced snowfall also weakens the natural meltwater buffer that supports water availability through late spring and summer.

The persistent back-to-back winter shortfalls point towards an emerging drying pattern rather than an isolated seasonal anomaly. Analysts note increasing variability in the strength and frequency of Western Disturbances, longer dry spells and greater intra-seasonal concentration of rainfall events as possible contributing factors.

With the snow accumulation window significantly weakened this season, concerns are likely to grow over water availability, agriculture and hydrological stability in the months ahead.