Records tumble, glaciers melt early, summer water fears rise

Srinagar, Feb 25: Kashmir is witnessing an unusually warm February, with multiple weather stations across the Valley recording temperatures 9 to 11 degrees Celsius above seasonal normals, turning what is typically the harshest stretch of winter into conditions resembling early spring.

The Meteorological Department has forecast continued dry weather, with daytime temperatures likely to rise further by at least 1 degree Celsius by the end of the month if prevailing conditions persist.

The absence of strong Western Disturbances, clear skies and intense solar radiation have driven the sharp spike in temperatures.

Srinagar recorded a maximum of 21 degrees Celsius earlier this week, the highest February reading in nearly a decade and about 10 degrees above normal, breaking the previous all-time February high of 20.6 degrees Celsius recorded on February 24, 2016.

The city continued to record elevated readings in subsequent days, marking one of its warmest February on record.

Qazigund, the gateway to Kashmir, has emerged as the hottest location in the Valley, touching around 21-21.5 degrees Celsius this week, over 11 degrees above normal and surpassing its earlier February record of 20.7 degrees Celsius.

Gulmarg surged to above 11 degrees Celsius, exceeding its previous February record of 11.4 degrees set in 1993, while Pahalgam registered temperatures above 17 degrees Celsius, more than 9 to 10 degrees above normal.

Kokernag and Kupwara also reported unusually high readings, with temperatures nearing 19 to 20 degrees Celsius.

Other typically cold destinations including Sonmarg, Daksum, Verinag, Gurez, Tulail, Zojila, Warwan, and Marwa have also recorded abnormal warmth.

In the Jammu region, Jammu recorded 25.5 degrees Celsius, while Banihal, Batote, Bhaderwah, and Katra reported temperatures well above seasonal averages.

In Ladakh, Leh, Kargil, and Nubra Valley also witnessed above-normal daytime temperatures.

ìIt was the highest maximum temperature recorded in February in a decade,î said Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Department Centre in Kashmir.

He said that further warming was likely if dry conditions continue.

Ahmad attributed the trend to climate change, noting that winters in Kashmir have become shorter and milder.

ìDue to climate change and global warming, our winterís duration and intensity have shrunk. Now winter is largely confined to the 40-day period of Chillai Kalan,î he said. ìThere is also a change in precipitation patterns.î

Climatologists say the entire western Himalayan belt including Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand have witnessed a significant snowfall deficit from November to February. Reduced snowfall, coupled with rising temperatures, has accelerated seasonal snow depletion and glacier melt.

Water levels in rivers and streams are already running higher than typical for February, with experts warning that peak river flows may now shift to early spring.

ìReduced snowfall limits glacier accumulation and weakens the insulating snow cover, exposing glacier ice earlier in the year,î said geologist Riyaz Ahmad Mir of the National Institute of Hydrology in Jammu. ìHigher temperatures accelerate melting and shift peak river flows to early spring.î

Climatologist Sonam Lotus cautioned that while early meltwater may temporarily boost supplies in March and April, reduced accumulation could result in water stress during peak summer months.

ìIt is like early aging,î he said. ìIf humans start getting old as young adults, it is not a good sign. The same is true for glaciers.î

The temperature deviations are part of a broader warming pattern.

Reports indicate that over 30 cities across India have recorded above-normal temperatures in recent days.

Experts point to elevation-dependent warming in the Himalayas where mountains heat 1.5 to 2 times faster than lowlands, amplifying extreme weather trends.

The agricultural sector is also feeling the impact.

Early blooming of almond and apple trees, triggered by accelerated warming, raises the risk of frost damage if temperatures fluctuate.

Apple orchards are additionally facing insufficient chilling hours, which could affect uniform flowering and yields.

ìWith snowfall already below normal, a prolonged dry phase will accelerate seasonal snow depletion at lower and mid elevations,î independent weather forecaster Faizan Keng said.

Shortened ski seasons in Gulmarg and Pahalgam have also drawn attention.

Amid frequent snow shortfalls, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah recently said the possibility of artificial snow must be explored to sustain winter sports.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast dry weather across the region through February 28, with only weak Western Disturbances expected and no major precipitation likely.

Experts warn that if the precipitation deficit continues, the early release of meltwater could strain irrigation, hydropower generation, groundwater recharge, and drinking water supplies later in summer, underscoring growing concerns over climate variability in the Himalayas.