Paytm Q1 results: Profit! What should 9 lakh retail investors be watching today?

With One 97 Communications Ltd (Paytm) set to announce its June quarter results today, July 22, its 8.94 lakh retail investors are eyeing a break even — Paytm’s first-ever net profit as a listed entity. Any updates on the regulatory triggers and increasing customer acquisition would be keenly watched, analysts said.

Paytm would likely turn PAT profitable in Q1, driven by robust contribution margin and 7 per cent QoQ revenue growth, JM Financial projected.

This brokerage expects Payments services revenue (ex- UPI incentives) to grow at 6 per cent QoQ or 21 per cent YoY, driven by 27 per cent YoY GMV growth at a relatively lower take rate due to rising share of lower yielding UPI in the mix.

“Merchant subscriber base is expected to grow 7 per cent QoQ (22 per cent YoY) to 1.33 crore as the company is focused on new merchant signups as well as reactivation of dormant merchants. In 1Q, loan disbursals are expected to grow at 8 per cent QoQ (c.23 YoY) mainly driven by merchant loans with significantly lower mix of Default Loss Guarantee (DLG),” JM Financial said.

JM is expecting Paytm to report PAT of Rs 18.9 crore as treasury income is likely to compensate for the impact of ESOP expense and D&A expense.

MOFSL estimated a 3 per cent QoQ growth in gross merchandise value (GMV) at Rs 5.3 lakh crore in 1QFY26. Revenue from operations is likely to remain flat QoQ but up 26 per cent YoY at Rs 1,896 crore, while contribution profit is expected to decline marginally to Rs 1050 crore, largely due to UPI incentives in 4QFY25. Contribution margin is expected to improve to 55.6 per cent. MOFSL expects the company to report marginal profit of Rs 2.4 crore in Q1.

JM Financial said personal loan disbursements are expected to remain slow on account of tightened unsecured lending. Revenue from Financial services is expected to remain flattish sequentially due to lower take rates on account of decline in FLDG based loans. Revenue from marketing services is expected to grow at 3 per cent QoQ.

“On a consolidated basis, revenue (ex- UPI incentive) is expected to grow c.8% QoQ. Contribution margin is expected to improve 80bps QoQ (ex-UPI incentive impact in Q4FY25). Despite the impact of wage hikes, improved operating leverage will result in Adjusted Ebitda of Rs 21.1 crore,” JM said.

YES Securities assumed 5 per cent QoQ growth in Payments Services Revenue and 10 per cent QoQ growth in Financial Services and Others and arrive at an overall growth in Revenue from operations of 2.1 per cent QoQ, after adjusting for UPI incentive received in 4QFY25.

“We forecast Payment Processing Charges (PPC) as a proportion of Payments Revenue to be at 55 per cent, a metric that was 49.8 per cent in 4QFY25, higher QoQ largely due to UPI incentive in 4QFY25,” it said while expecting a loss of Rs 16.5 crore.