On Thin Ice: Indus basin snow droughts deepen, Kashmir loses winter snow buffer: IIT Jammu Study

Srinagar, Jan 13: The Indus River basin has witnessed at least 14 major snow droughts over the past two decades, and Kashmir, located in the basin’s upper reaches, is the region most exposed to the fallout, according to a new study by IIT Jammu.

The study, ‘Intensified occurrences of snow droughts are related to snow cover dynamics in the Hindu Kush Himalayas,’ identifies the Indus basin as one of the most snow-stressed river systems in the Himalayas, linking basin-wide warming and shrinking snow cover directly to the warmer winters, reduced snowfall, and shorter snow season now being experienced in Kashmir.

Using Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) data from the High Mountain Asia Snow Reanalysis and MODIS satellite snow cover records, the researchers analysed snow drought patterns across 11 major Himalayan River basins.

The Indus basin emerged as one of the most vulnerable, recording 14 snow drought events, a level exceeded by only a few Western Himalayan basins.

“Kashmir falls within the Indus-B2 sub-basin, which the study identifies as a snow-drought hotspot,” the authors said, adding that Kashmir lies squarely within the zone experiencing repeated and severe snow scarcity.

One of the study’s key findings is the steady loss of snow-covered days across the Indus basin – a trend that explains the changing character of Kashmir’s winters.

On average, the basin has lost about 0.65 snow-covered days per year, translating into nearly 12 fewer snow days over the past two decades.

For Kashmir, this means less winter snow surviving long enough to act as a natural reservoir.

“The decline in snow cover weakens the Indus basin’s ability to store winter precipitation as snow,” the study said, warning that reduced snow persistence is cutting into spring and summer water availability.

The researchers also found strong evidence of elevation-dependent warming in the upper Indus basin, including the mountain ranges surrounding Kashmir.

Areas above 4000 metres are warming at around 0.34 degrees Celsius per decade, compared with 0.20 degrees Celsius per decade at lower elevations.

This faster warming at high altitude reduces snow accumulation and accelerates melt, disrupting the timing of flows into the Jhelum River, a major Indus tributary that sustains Kashmir.

Experts working in Kashmir say the satellite-based findings closely mirror what is unfolding on the ground.

“Kashmir is seeing more frequent snow droughts because it lies within the Indus basin, where warming is strongest,” said Riyaz Ahmad Mir, a geologist at the National Institute of Hydrology, Jammu.

“Since the 1980s, average winter temperatures in Kashmir have risen by about 0.8 degrees Celsius, with faster warming after the year 2000,” Mir said. “As a result, a larger share of winter precipitation now falls as rain instead of snow.”

He said several recent winters have seen snowfall deficits of 40 to 80 percent, while satellite studies indicate a 20 to 25 percent decline in snow cover across Kashmir.

The shrinking snowpack is already affecting the Indus-Jhelum river system, which depends on slow, sustained snowmelt from Kashmir’s surrounding mountains.

“The Jhelum, springs, and groundwater recharge in Kashmir are directly linked to snowmelt in the Indus basin headwaters,” Mir said. “Snow droughts are leading to low spring and summer flows and the drying of traditional water sources.”

The impacts extend beyond hydrology.

“Apple orchards, paddy fields rely on gradual snowmelt, winter tourism is suffering, and drinking-water security is becoming fragile,” he said.

Meteorological records show that Kashmir’s recent winters closely follow the basin-wide pattern emphasised in the IIT Jammu study.

“Except for the winters of 2020 and 2021, peak winter months, especially December and January, have remained largely dry since 2018,” said Muhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Department, Kashmir.

“High maximum and minimum temperatures and prolonged dry spells have led to significant shrinkage of glacier areas in the Indus basin headwaters,” Ahmad said.

He said that climate change has altered the form of precipitation as well.

“Increasingly, snowfall is being replaced by rainfall, even during core winter months,” he said.

This winter has followed the same pattern, with extended dry spells and above-normal temperatures, reinforcing concerns that Kashmir’s snow droughts are part of a long-term Indus basin shift, rather than short-term weather variability.

While the authors acknowledge data limitations, including the absence of post-2016 reanalysis, experts say the trend is unmistakable.

“Snow drought in the Indus basin has become a major driver of water insecurity in Kashmir,” Mir said. “What was once a dependable winter snow regime is now increasingly uncertain.”

The study carried out by researchers Hemant Sinh, Divyesh Vare, and Viv Gupta makes clear that Kashmir’s snow crisis cannot be viewed in isolation; rather, it is rooted in basin-wide climatic changes reshaping winters, water availability, and livelihoods across the Valley.