Mukesh Ambani’s refinery deal rekindles momentum in India US ties

It began with a dramatic, and a totally unexpected social media post from Donald Trump, that too at the peak of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Taking to Truth Social on March 11, the U.S. President announced that his nation would build its first new oil refinery in nearly half a century, hailing it as a milestone for America’s energy future.

WATCH: Reliance Joins $300B Texas Refinery Project Announced By Trump; 20-Year Fuel Deal Signed

But the real surprise lay in the partner he chose to highlight. Trump thanked India and Reliance, a company he described as India’s “largest privately held Energy Company” and praised what he called a “tremendous investment” backing the project led by America First Refining.

The refinery, planned at the Port of Brownsville in Texas, will be designed specifically to process American shale oil. If completed on schedule, it will become the first refinery built in the United States in almost 50 years, processing about 60 million barrels of crude annually.

For Mukesh Ambani, Chairman of Reliance Industries — the $200-billion conglomerate that posted $9 billion in net profit in 2024–25 — the move represents more than just an investment.

It marks a stunning turnaround in Washington, DC, after months of criticism directed squarely at India’s oil trade and the country’s biggest energy conglomerates. It also helps build renewed momentum in India-US ties after months of discord.

FROM CRITICISM TO PARTNERSHIP

Not long ago, Mukesh and Nita Ambani were part of the close-knit group invited to the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the U.S.

Then the team Trump unleashed a barrage of criticism.

Trump adviser Peter Navarro openly criticised India’s purchases of Russian oil, arguing that Indian refiners were effectively acting as a “global clearinghouse” for embargoed crude. According to Navarro, the trade allowed Russia to continue earning hard currency while Indian refiners profited from processing and exporting the fuel.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added fuel to the fire, suggesting that some of the largest profits from Russia oil trade had flowed to wealthy Indian industrial families.

In short, the political narrative in Washington began to cast India’s refiners, and particularly Reliance Industries, as opportunistic players exploiting geopolitical turmoil.

Fast forward to today, and the same administration is applauding a partnership with Reliance.

Not only is the Trump camp welcoming Reliance as a partner in a landmark refinery project — it is also openly acknowledging the stabilising role India’s oil trade has played in global markets.

That shift is captured in a recent post by the new US ambassador to India, Sergio Gor.

“India has been a great partner in maintaining stable oil prices around the world. The United States recognizes ongoing purchases of Russian oil are a part of this effort,” Gor wrote on X.

The tone marks a sharp contrast with the earlier criticism – and reflects a broader reset in how Washington views India’s energy role.

AMBANI’S ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY

Behind this shift lies a quieter but powerful campaign of relationship-building by the Ambani family. Over the past two years, the family has steadily strengthened ties with influential figures in the U.S.

When Anant Ambani, Mukesh Ambani’s youngest son, married in 2024, the wedding guest list included members of the Trump family.

Later, Donald Trump Jr. visited Vantara, the massive wildlife conservation and animal rescue project developed by the Ambani family in Gujarat.

Even symbolic moments have reinforced the relationship. During the India–US match at the T20 World Cup, the Ambanis were seen sitting alongside Ambassador Sergio Gor – a visual that captured the increasingly warm ties between the family and Washington’s diplomatic establishment.

WHY A REFINERY MATTERS

A new refinery project would be more than symbolic. For decades, investors believed building a new refinery in the United States was nearly impossible because of regulatory hurdles and economics.

“This project represents a historic step forward for American energy production,” said founder John V Calce.

The timing also reflects the turbulent state of global energy markets.

With tensions in West Asia threatening key shipping routes and oil infrastructure, countries are increasingly looking to secure supply chains closer to home. Expanding domestic refining capacity allows the US to process more of its own crude rather than exporting it overseas.

WHY RELIANCE IS A NATURAL PARTNER

In the refining world, volumes matter, but complexity even more so.

Reliance’s giant Jamnagar refinery complex in Gujarat is widely regarded as one of the most advanced refining hubs in the world. Its Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) of 21.1 ranks it among the most sophisticated facilities globally. Jamnagar churn out high-value products even from the so-called “bottom of the barrel” low-quality crude.

That experience could fill a major gap in the US refining landscape. Many American refineries were built decades ago to process cleaner imported crude rather than the lighter shale oil now pouring out of US fields.

WHAT IS THE DEAL STRUCTURE?

So far, Reliance Industries has not issued a mandatory disclosure about the project to Indian stock exchanges – the BSE or the NSE.

That has triggered speculation that the investment could be routed through entities such as Reliance Holding USA or other overseas structures rather than directly through Reliance Industries.

The press release from America First Refining did not name the partner, only saying it had received “a nine-figure investment from a global supermajor at a ten-figure valuation” and signed a “binding 20-year offtake agreement” that guarantees purchases and distribution of fuels produced from American shale oil.

Construction of the new refinery is expected to begin in April-June 2026.

Analysts say the financial scale could be enormous. A report from JPMorgan estimates that if Reliance holds roughly 50 per cent equity with a 30–70 equity-debt structure, the company’s equity commitment alone could approach $10 billion.

THE IMPORTANCE FOR INDIA

It is not only the Ambani family, but India which is benefiting from the closer, ‘refined’ ties.

Russian oil is again being snapped up by Indian refineries after the 30-day sanction waiver from the US government last week.

Now, a major investment in American refining infrastructure deepens the interdependence. It also takes India several rungs higher in its energy “reciprocity index” with the U.S.

If Indian companies invest billions in US infrastructure, help process American shale and stabilise global fuel markets, it becomes far harder for Washington to impose sweeping sanctions or punitive tariffs without hurting its own energy ecosystem.

For Reliance, the project opens the door to a vast new refining frontier.

For the United States, it strengthens domestic energy security.

And for India, it quietly adds a layer of insurance in an unpredictable geopolitical era — even in a Trump-style trade environment.

In the end, the refinery will not only refine oil but also smoothen the mechanics of power, partnership and geopolitical leverage.