Kharg Island: What will happen if the US seizes Iran’s crown jewel?

Besides the speculations, reports suggest that Iran is preparing for a potential invasion of Kharg Island by the US. US officials said that the Trump administration is weighing whether to send ground forces to the island. 

According to a report in Reuters, two contingents of Marines could arrive in the region around the end of the month. More airborne troops would be sent to allow more options for Trump to order a ground invasion. 

Donald Trump had also indicated that the oil pipelines in the island might not remain safe forever. US forces carried out strikes on Kharg in mid-March, after which Trump said they “totally obliterated” all military targets and that the oil infrastructure – that was deliberately not hit – might be targeted next. 

What would happen if Trump occupies Kharg Island?

Seizing the island would give the US the ability to disrupt Iran’s energy trade and put immense pressure on Tehran’s economy. The island lies in deep waters that enable docking of tankers that are too large to reach the mainland’s shallow water coasts. Hence, 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports is handled through the island. 

With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the seizing of Kharg Island would pose immense risks to Iran’s energy trade.

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Meanwhile, it is not all good news for the US. The seizing could be achieved quickly but it might leave US troops in great peril and in turn prolong the war, as per operation analysts. Trump is seeking a swift and decisive end to the war, considering the unpopularity of the Iran war ahead of the November mid-terms.

Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said, “A seizure and occupation of Kharg Island is more likely to expand ‌and extend ⁠the war than it is to deliver any sort of decisive victory.” They said the troops would be exposed to missile and drone attacks, and potentially, small but lethal camera-wielding ‘first-person view drones’ that are already in use in the Ukraine war. These would only feed into Iran’s narrative.

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Former commander of the US Central Command, Joseph Votel, told TWZ.com that while only 800 to 1,000 troops would be needed on Kharg Island, they would ⁠require logistical ​backup and protection too. 

Trump would want to seize the island to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. But in response, Iran could lay or float more mines to target ships, which could make the region all the more dangerous for shipping.