Kashmir’s glacial lakes edge toward catastrophe

Srinagar, Jan 11: Amid a considerably dry winter triggered mainly by climate change, there is a high risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalaya, experts warn.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods can be disastrous for downstream populations due to the sudden release of water from a lake dammed by loose moraine material.

Fast retreating of glaciers due to global warming and pollution has created glacial lakes in various mountain ranges of Kashmir, making the region vulnerable to GLOF.

“Five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalaya pose a very high risk of sudden, catastrophic GLOFs,” warns a latest ground-breaking research, published in the prestigious Journal of Glaciology, jointly done by the International Glaciological Society and Cambridge.

The study has been led by researchers from the University of Kashmir.

The research has been conducted as part of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) sponsored project, Identifying Current and Future GLOF risk under contrasting topographic and climatic zones of the Indian Himalaya.

The study has been conducted using the Earth Observation Data and modeling by the group led by the Head of the Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir (KU), Associate Professor Irfan Rashid.

The study warns that “such events could wipe out communities and critical infrastructure downstream of glacial lakes.”

The study assumes significance as Kolahoi, the largest glacier of Kashmir’s Jhelum Basin, is retreating rapidly due to a spurt in temperature triggered by global warming and extreme pollution.

Thajiwas, Hoksar, Nehnar, Shishram, and glaciers around Harmukh are also retreating slowly.

Melting glaciers erode land and fill up the space, creating glacial lakes.

Besides glacier recession, the prevailing warming scenario over the Himalaya makes communities and infrastructure more vulnerable to cryosphere-related hazards that were previously not experienced in the past.

In Kashmir, below-normal snowfall during the last several winters, accompanied by high winter temperatures and summer heat waves, contribute significantly to high glacier melting and the creation of glacial lakes.

The alarming findings are grounded in a rigorous validation against historical glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) across the Himalaya, including the devastating 2023 breach of South Lhonak Lake in Sikkim, which claimed over 100 lives and destroyed key infrastructure.

Led by Assistant Professor Syed Danish Rafiq Kashani, the research uncovered a 26 percent expansion in ice-contact proglacial lakes from 1992 to 2024, a direct consequence of the accelerated glacial retreat in the region, which is among the fastest in the Himalaya.

Using satellite remote sensing and a novel framework, the team assessed lakes based on 10 risk factors, including dam material, slope stability, seismic activity, permafrost thaw, and upstream cascades.

“GLOF risk is currently concentrated in the central Himalaya, but it is projected to shift and triple towards the western Himalaya by the end of the century, putting Kashmir directly in the crosshairs of this escalating climate threat,” said Kashani, the lead author.

“Lakes like Bramsar and Chirsar are ticking time bombs. They are glued to retreating glaciers and growing rapidly. We are witnessing an accelerating buildup of water in fragile glacial lakes high above our communities,” he said.

The downstream implications in Kashmir could be severe.

The hydrologically-linked Nundkol and Gangabal lakes from the Ganderbal district alone threaten more than 1000 buildings, four bridges, and a hydropower plant.

Bramsar and Chirsar lakes together endanger at least more than 400 buildings and five bridges in the south Kashmir districts of Shopian and Kulgam, while Bhagsar Lake puts more than 1100 structures, and six bridges, at risk in Shopian district.

“This isn’t alarmism; it is evidence-based urgency,” Associate Professor Irfan Rashid, the corresponding author of the study, told Greater Kashmir. “Kashmir has no recorded history of major GLOFs, but the physical conditions are now aligning dangerously. In seismically active Zone V terrain with widespread permafrost, a single breach could trigger multi-hazard cascades downstream. This study provides the actionable intelligence needed to shift from vague concern to precise prevention.”

The research arrives as Kashmir eyes sobering lessons from Sikkim’s 2023 catastrophe, where early warnings did not prevent disaster.

“Just as in Sikkim, where science provided warning but action lagged, our lakes demand proactive monitoring before a cascade turns deadly,” Kashani said.

The authors stress that identification is only the first step.

“We have set a baseline. Now we need continuous monitoring, strategic action plans, and targeted interventions including real-time sensor networks, community alert systems, and engineering safeguards for high-risk lakes,” Rashid said.

Already, the research team is moving beyond assessment toward solutions, with work underway on a low-cost, tailor-made early warning system for Himalayan GLOFs and plans for community-based workshops in vulnerable districts to boost public awareness and preparedness.

The study underscores a pressing reality and provides the implementing agencies with a scientifically informed road map.

“As glaciers continue to retreat under prevalent warming, Kashmir’s majestic peaks are incubating a hidden hydrological hazard, one that science has now unmasked, and one that decision-makers can no longer afford to ignore,” Rashid said.

Experts recommended that the hydropower and other river engineering structures downstream should be designed to withstand the disastrous surges of the water and debris associated with the bursting of the glacier lakes, particularly in the Chenab Valley, where several hydropower projects are in operation.

Chairing a high-level review meeting in the aftermath of heavy rains, landslides, and floods in the Jammu region, Union Home Minister and Minister of Cooperation Amit Shah, on September 1 last year, had emphasised the urgent need to strengthen GLOF and cloudburst early warning systems.

He had stressed that a critical analysis of existing Early Warning Apps (EWAs), their accuracy, and grassroots reach was vital to moving toward a “zero-casualty” approach.

The Home Minister had directed the Meteorological Department and NDMA to jointly study weather patterns, including cloud moisture content, to establish better forecasting mechanisms using data analytics and Artificial Intelligence.

The Jammu and Kashmir government has taken several steps to mitigate the risks associated with GLOFs in J&K.

The initiative envisages a phased approach, including data collection, identification of high-risk glacial lakes, and development of early warning systems. The government has also constituted the Focused GLOF Monitoring Committee (FGMC) to oversee implementation of the mitigation strategy.

The committee has identified 14 high-risk glacial lakes, three moderate-risk lakes, and seven low-risk lakes.

Expeditions have been conducted to high-risk lakes, including Sheeshnag and Sonsar, to enhance understanding and preparedness.