Kashmir Sees Shifting Rainfall Trends; Experts Flag Water, Flood Concerns

SRINAGAR: A recent study has revealed significant changes in rainfall patterns across the Kashmir region over the past 48 years, raising concerns about water availability, agricultural productivity, and urban flood risks.

The study, based on rainfall data from six meteorological stations between 1975 and 2023, found a marked decline in annual rainfall in key areas such as Gulmarg, Pahalgam, and Qazigund. Gulmarg recorded the steepest drop, with an average annual reduction of 11.058 millimetres per year.

Researchers noted that this downward trend could impact both drinking water supply and agriculture, particularly in rural areas that rely heavily on rainfall for crop cultivation.

In contrast, Srinagar showed an increase in January rainfall over the same period, raising concerns over heightened flood risks during winter months. The study attributes the shift in rainfall patterns to the broader impacts of climate change and underlines the urgency of upgrading Srinagar’s drainage infrastructure to manage possible urban flooding.

Seasonal variations were also observed, with a notable decline in spring rainfall across mountainous areas. Researchers warned this could disrupt traditional crop cycles, affecting agricultural yields. Additionally, monsoon rainfall was found to be increasingly erratic in some areas, complicating water resource management.

The research team used statistical tools including the Mann-Kendall trend test and spatial interpolation methods like Kriging to analyse rainfall distribution. Where data gaps existed, machine learning techniques such as Decision Trees and K-Nearest Neighbours were applied, yielding an estimated accuracy of around 67 percent.

Experts said these findings highlight the need for localised climate adaptation strategies. Reduced spring rainfall may necessitate a shift toward drought-resistant crops and more efficient irrigation systems. In rural Kashmir, the declining annual rainfall underscores the importance of adopting rainwater harvesting to enhance water security.

The study calls for urgent investment in flood mitigation infrastructure in urban areas like Srinagar, alongside long-term planning for water conservation in rainfall-deficient regions.

Researchers concluded that these changes reflect the broader global trends linked to climate change, with the Himalayan region serving as a vital indicator of environmental transformation. They stressed that responses must be timely and grounded in scientific data. (KNO)