India’s Russian Crude Imports Likely To Drop To 0.8 MBPD Following U.S.-India Interim Trade Deal

India’s imports of Russian crude oil are estimated to slump to less than 0.8 million barrels per day in February 2026, a significant decline from the 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day recorded in the first half of 2025. This shift follows the US-India interim trade deal announced on February 2, 2026, which includes expectations for India to reduce Russian oil reliance. To fill the gap, India is diversifying its crude basket by turning toward the Middle East, West Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria. Additionally, there is a renewed focus on increasing domestic production and exploration, as highlighted during the India Energy Week. While some market experts suggest imports could eventually drop to near-zero levels, the current trend shows India actively replacing Russian supplies with energy products from the US and other global partners. The evolving crude strategy marks a major pivot in India’s energy procurement policy following recent diplomatic and trade developments with Washington.