How Iran war is hitting fertilizer supplies: ‘Timing is pretty detrimental’ – National

Plans surrounding spring farming for Canadians are set to drastically change following the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and the spillover effects on global fertilizer supplies.

The narrow waterway near Iran handles a significant portion of global energy and fertilizer supplies and is home to some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, but is showing no signs of reopening due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.

The sea channel is responsible for one-third of the global trade for these nutrients, such as urea, nitrogen, sulphur and phosphates, according to Kreg Ruhl, vice-president of crop nutrients for Growmark.

Currently, Iran is threatening any vessels that attempt to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

President and CEO of Fertilizer Canada Michael Bourque said in an emailed statement to Global News that “as a globally traded commodity, any impact on global fertilizer production can be felt throughout the market.”

“Ongoing instability in the region also has the potential to disrupt global trade flows, particularly through key corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz, which plays a central role in the movement of energy, fertilizer and many other goods.”

The timing is not ideal for those who require these products, as the seasons change and demand is set to skyrocket.

“The entire world is competing for the limited supply that’s available, and we’re preparing to go to the fields and plan for next year’s crops in the next 30 to 60 days in most of North America, so the timing is pretty detrimental,” Ruhl said.

Canada produced 32.8 per cent — around 76.1 million tonnes — of the world’s total potash, a key mineral in fertilizers, in 2024.

It remains the world’s largest potash producer, according to Natural Resources Canada.

But that doesn’t mean Canada or Canadian farmers will be entirely insulated from the global supply chain issues. Ryan Flitton, one of the owners of Twin Valley Farms in Ontario, emphasized that there is more than potash needed to create fertilizer.

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“Obviously, there’s nitrogen and other ingredients that we need, nutrients that we don’t produce in Canada. So, in order to make that perfect product to help farmers, you need more than just potash,” he said.

“And of course, you need affordable fertilizers. That’s not always the case in Canada; most of the fertilizers that we actually produce in Canada are for export markets, really.

“What we produce, we don’t consume, but we actually tend to consume things that are imported. And that’s why it’s a bit of a challenge.”

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Ruhl also said the biggest impact Canadian farms will face is the fluctuating price point.

“That’s compounded with how farmers have been facing a sustained period of ‘farmgate’ economics that are negative to them, so additional prices on the inputs only make the farmgate economics challenges harder.”

Philip Rumley, a grain producer at North Rumley Farm in southern Alberta, said the farm is “absolutely” seeing the impacts of fertilizer prices rising.

“Rumours are we’re up at $1,200 a ton for urea. So, if you haven’t bought your fertilizer by now, because we’re within a month of go time, you’re going to be in trouble,” he said.

“If they shut down the Strait of Hormuz, nothing’s going in and nothing’s going out. So that affects the whole global price for everything because we’re locked into a global market.”

However, Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph, said it is not just potash that will be affected.

“If you look at what moves through the Strait of Hormuz to Canada, it is some liquefied natural gas coming to Eastern Canada, some crude coming to Eastern Canada, that if we had pipelines or other ways to move it, we could be supplying from western Canada,” he said.

“So, we might see some small impacts on freight rates.”

Bourque said “farmers are encouraged to consult their local agricultural retailers for the most up-to-date information on fertilizer supply in their area.”

It’s not the first upheaval for Canadian fertilizer and the agricultural industry.

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap tariffs on Canadian fertilizer “if we have to” in December 2025, putting a strain on the future of the Canadian fertilizer business.

The Trump administration previously lifted tariffs on several key imported fertilizers, effective Nov. 13, 2025. That came after tariffs of 25 per cent were levied on goods from Canada and Mexico in March 2025.

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Canadian potash imports to the U.S. had initially faced a 25 per cent tariff, which was quickly reduced to 10 per cent.

Despite the uncertainty, Nutrien, the Saskatchewan-based company that is the world’s largest provider of crop inputs and services, told The Canadian Press in February that “it expects potash sales volumes to come in between 14.1 million tonnes and 14.8 million tonnes this year.”

Alongside the change in seasons, the demand for products is reaching its yearly peak at an uncertain time.

“Fertilizer has two seasons [fall and spring] and it’s unique to each kind of geography,” Ruhl said.

“But when I think of our Eastern Canadian business, that is primarily a spring market, especially for all but nitrogen products, and those are probably the most impacted by the Strait of Hormuz being closed.”

— with files from Global News’ Heather Yourex-West.