Hormuz risk may push India toward Russian oil again

As tensions escalate in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz faces the risk of prolonged disruption, India may once again lean more heavily on Russian crude, not as a geopolitical pivot, but as a logistical necessity, government sources told Business Today. 

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The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, carries nearly one-fifth of global oil supplies. For India, the exposure is significant: between 2.5 and 2.7 million barrels per day of India-bound crude transit through the chokepoint, according to data from Kpler. Nearly two-thirds of LNG shipments and about 95% of LPG imports also originate in the Middle East, largely moving through these waters.

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Any sustained disruption would therefore directly affect India’s primary energy suppliers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.

Russian crude, however, follows a different maritime route. Shipments typically load from Baltic or Black Sea ports and reach India via the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope, entering the Arabian Sea directly. Crucially, these cargoes do not pass through Hormuz.

In the event of a closure or severe restriction, Russian barrels already at sea, or awaiting discharge, would be insulated from the chokepoint risk affecting Gulf producers.

India had emerged as the largest buyer of Moscow’s seaborne crude following the Ukraine conflict, capitalising on discounted supplies. In recent months, however, purchases had moderated amid US diplomatic pressure and improving trade ties with Washington.

Data from Kpler shows Russian imports easing to just over 1 million barrels per day in February, down from 1.2 million barrels per day in December. Meanwhile, Saudi shipments surged nearly 30% month-on-month to cross 1 million barrels per day, the highest in almost six years.

Government sources maintain that India currently holds roughly 25 days of crude reserves, along with similar levels of refined products in transit, providing a near-term buffer.

Yet if Hormuz disruptions persist and freight or insurance costs spike in Gulf waters, refiners may prioritise route security and supply availability. In such a scenario, Russian crude independent of the chokepoint could once again become a pragmatic option in safeguarding India’s energy security.