Government confirms 5 Kashmir glacial lakes at high GLOF risk

Srinagar, Mar 31: An official admission has validated the concerns of a crisis building up in the high mountains of Kashmir.

At least five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalaya have been classified as posing a “very high risk” of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).

These lakes could devastate downstream areas in Ganderbal, Shopian, and Kulgam districts, under certain conditions, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said in Assembly on Tuesday.

The government said that the lakes – Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal, and Bhagsar are under the label of “very high susceptibility”.

The revelations have come as reply to question of MLA Tanvir Sadiq.

Replying to the question, CM Omar said the assessment provides a baseline for understanding vulnerability and prioritising future detailed studies.

The government replied in affirmative to the question on whether the recent scientific studies published in the Journal of Glaciology have classified these lakes as GLOFs.

“The study analysed 155 glacial lakes using a set of hydro-geomorphic indicators, including lake expansion rate, stability of their dams and surrounding conditions,” the government said. “On the basis of these indicators, a small number of lakes including Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal and Bhagsar were categorised under the ‘very high susceptibility’ class relative to other lakes in the region.”

In a statement that appears to decipher the risk, the CM said, “However, it’s important to note that a lake classified as high susceptibility simply means that, if specific triggering conditions were to occur, it may be more prone to an outburst compared to others. This does not imply that the lake is currently unstable, actively breaching or likely to fail in the immediate future.”

The government said that it had carried out independent risk mapping of downstream habitations and infrastructure in view of the scientific study findings.

“As part of the study, a first-order approximation of downstream exposure was undertaken using geospatial analysis to identify habitations and critical infrastructure located along potential downstream flow paths from selected glacial lakes at risk,” the CM said.

He said that the preliminary assessment provides a baseline understanding of downstream vulnerability and serves as an initial framework for prioritizing areas where more detailed scientific investigations may be required in the future.

Shockingly, the government said, the five lakes threaten “2704 buildings, around 15 major bridges, segments of road infrastructure and one hydro-power plant in their immediate downstream areas.”

It said that the future course of action include continuous monitoring of high-susceptibility lakes through remote sensing and targeted field assessments, installation of effective early-warning mechanisms, development of eco-zonation plans in downstream vulnerable areas and integration of informed GLOF-risk scenarios into district-level disaster preparedness and response plans.

While acknowledging the critical need to carry out detailed assessment of the magnitude of the risk, the government said that precise estimation of flood magnitude, velocity and warning time is necessary and requires reliable information on glacial lake volume.

“Such information can only be obtained through field-based bathymetric (depth) measurements which are presently unavailable for most glacial lakes in the Himalayan region,” it said in the reply.

While detailing the reliance on the researchers at the Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir involved in this work, the government said, “GLOF early-warning systems specifically tailored for mountain environments are under development. These efforts involve integrating satellite-based monitoring, field observations, sensor-based hydrometeorological measurements, and near-real-time communication frameworks”.

The Department of Geoinformatics recently procured a high-precision RTK-enabled robotic echo-sounding boat with the financial assistance from Ministry of Earth Sciences.

A detailed analysis of western Himalayas through support from various stakeholders is in pipeline I. 2026.