Glacier melt on fast-forward in J&K

Srinagar, Feb 15: An unusually dry winter and rising temperatures this month across Jammu and Kashmir have accelerated snow and glacier melt in the western Himalayas, including Jammu and Kashmir, raising concerns about water availability during the peak summer months.

Climatologist Sonam Lotus said the snowfall deficit this season has extended across the western Himalayan region, including Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.

ìThis winter, right from November to February till date, the whole western Himalayas witnessed large deficit snowfall,î Lotus said. ìThe temperature is rising fast mainly because of the clear sky.î

He said higher daytime temperatures are expected to persist in the coming days, increasing the risk of ecological disruption.

ìFaster melting of glaciers would mean early blooming almonds and apples, affecting their overall production,î Lotus said.

While early meltwater may ensure normal availability in March and April, he cautioned that ìin the long run, the water bodies will run dry and will be scarce once the farming activity starts.î

ìIt is like early ageing. If humans start getting old as young adults, it is not a good sign. The same is with glaciers,î he said.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast dry weather across the region until February 25, with only feeble western disturbances expected around February 17 and February 23 and no major precipitation likely.

Director Meteorological Centre, Srinagar, Mukhtar Ahmad said temperatures were likely to increase further due to the prolonged dry spell.

ìAs of now, there would be no major Western Disturbance,î Ahmad said. ìEarly melting of snow in upper reaches and glaciers means early high discharge in rivers and streams.î

He said river flows were expected to rise temporarily in March and April, replenishing water bodies.

ìBut as summer approaches, the water level will come down, particularly if there is no major precipitation in the form of rain,î Ahmad said.

In Srinagar, the maximum temperature on Sunday reached 18 degrees Celsius, 7.6 degrees Celsius above normal, while the minimum settled at minus 0.1 degrees Celsius, minus 1.2 degrees Celsius above average.

Similarly, above-normal temperatures were recorded across Kashmir, Ladakh, and the Jammu plains, where the maximum touched 25 degrees Celsius, 3.1 degrees Celsius above normal.

Even hill resorts like Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Sonmarg, Kokernag, Daksum, Verinag – as well as Gurez, Tulail, Zojila, Warwan and Marwa, which are among the coldest places in the region, are witnessing an unusual surge in temperatures.

The winter season is drawing to a close with Chillai Khurad (small cold), which follows the 40-day Chillai Kalan (large cold) from January 30 to February 18.

The 10-day Chillai Bacha (baby cold) will follow Chillai Khurad and end on February 28.

ìFebruary is ending with a large rain deficit, even as January too remained mostly dry, with snowfall mostly recorded in higher reaches, and the deficit prevailed. Winter is now coming close with substantial heat,î the Meteorological Department said.

Riyaz Ahmad Mir, a geologist at the National Institute of Hydrology in Jammu, said below-normal snowfall combined with rising temperatures is likely to trigger early snow and glacier melt across the region.

ìReduced snowfall contributes little to glacier accumulation and weakens the protective insulating snow cover,î Mir said. ìThis leads to earlier exposure of glacier ice in the year.î

He said higher temperatures would ìaccelerate melting and extend the glacier ablation season,î shifting peak river flows to early spring and pre-summer periods.

ìBecause a large portion of meltwater is released earlier than normal, water availability during peak summer months may decline,î Mir said. ìThis can place stress on irrigation during the sowing period, reduce drinking water supply, and lead to decreased groundwater recharge and reduced spring discharge.î

Independent weather forecaster Faizan Keng said no major rain or snowfall activity is visible for the remainder of the month, which could widen Februaryís rainfall deficit.

ìWith snowfall already below normal across many parts of Jammu and Kashmir, any prolonged dry phase now will accelerate seasonal snow depletion at lower and mid elevations,î Keng said.

He said that early blooming of trees under such conditions increases vulnerability to late frost events that could affect crop yields.

With winter ending amid a significant precipitation shortfall and sustained warmth, experts warn that an early surge in river discharge may be followed by sharp water stress as temperatures climb further into summer.