First polls since Sheikh Hasina’s fall: BNP or Jamaat who has the edge in Bangladesh?

Bangladesh heads to national elections on Thursday, February 12. The contest is widely seen as the country’s most consequential poll in decades. The vote comes 18 months after Jamaat-backed student protests overthrew former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government, paving the way for an interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

The Awami League – the party that led Bangladesh to Independence in 1971 and remained its largest political force until its fall – has been barred from contesting. The electoral field is now largely bipolar: the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), headed by Tarique Rahman, versus the Jamaat-e-Islami-led bloc.

Bangladesh’s National Parliament, known as the Jatiya Sangsad, has 350 seats. Of these, 300 are general seats filled through direct elections, while 50 are reserved for women and allocated to political parties in proportion to their strength in the House.

What opinion polls predict

A series of pre-election surveys has produced divergent projections. 

A survey by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD), which said it interviewed 41,500 respondents across all 300 constituencies using the Primary Sampling Unit method, projected a clear BNP advantage, the Dhaka Tribune reported on Monday.   

EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Haider Talukder said the BNP-led alliance could win around 208 seats, while the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance may secure 46 seats. The survey projected 17 seats for independents, three for the Jatiya Party, four for other parties, and 22 closely contested constituencies.

A second survey by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD), conducted between January 21 and February 5, suggested a tight race. It projected 105 seats for the Jamaat-led alliance and 101 seats for the BNP-led bloc. The IILD data showed BNP narrowly leading in vote share at 44.10%, closely followed by Jamaat-e-Islami at 43.90%. 

A third projection from the Nationalist Research Cell (NRC), a platform of former Dhaka University students, forecast an overwhelming BNP sweep – 77% of the popular vote and 220 parliamentary seats. The NRC predicted 57 seats for Jamaat-e-Islami, five for the Jatiya Party, and 16 for independents and others.

BNP’s history with India

The electoral contest is also being closely watched in New Delhi, given the turbulence in India-Bangladesh ties since Hasina fled Dhaka in August 2024.

When BNP leader Tarique Rahman returned to Dhaka in December 2025 after 17 years, some observers saw the possibility of political stabilisation. 

“I think his return is politically very significant,” Riva Ganguly Das, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, told ANI. “He has been away for a very long time, and because Begum Zia herself was not well, he has managed the party quite well.”

Das said Rahman may be able to consolidate the centrist forces in Bangladesh because the main concern now is the rise of the right wing (read Jamaat). At the same time, she pointed to the troubled history between India and the BNP.

“The record of BNP – last time they were in power in 2001 – has not been very happy for India,” she said. “Relations were tense, there were insurgency activities near the border, and the Chittagong arms haul case is very well known.”

She, however, added that circumstances have shifted since then. The big difference from then and now, she continued, is that at that time, there was a coalition government with the Jamaat. “That was slightly different BNP,” she said. “I would like to believe that now in the changed circumstances, and what BNP has gone through in these years, especially since August 2024, Rahman probably will have an impact in bringing temperatures a bit.”

Das also observed that the BNP has not clearly articulated its India policy. “From time to time, we see very shrill anti-India statements coming out of the BNP leaders,” she said. “I would like to believe that if they come to power, there will be some sort of working relations between India and Bangladesh.”

The BNP governed Bangladesh between 2001 and 2006 in coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami. 

What is Rahman’s position?

Rahman himself has set out his approach to India in direct terms. 

“Bangladesh comes first. I will prioritise the interests of my country’s people and my nation’s interests first. Whatever I do, I will do so while upholding those interests,” he said in an interview with BBC Bangla in October 2025.

When asked whether a BNP government would seek to repair relations with India, Rahman said, “If India gives shelter to an autocrat and becomes unpopular among the people of Bangladesh, there is nothing we can do. The people have decided to keep their distance from them. So, I must stay with my people.”