Experts warn of cascading drought in Kashmir

Srinagar, Jan 7: The scant snowfall in Kashmir will lead to a meteorological drought, which will in turn result in a water drought, ultimately leading to hydropower and agricultural drought, and finally, an economic drought, experts warn.

According to experts, the scant snowfall in Kashmir this winter is not just a seasonal anomaly, but an early indication of a meteorological drought.

They are linking the deficit to weakening Western Disturbances, climate change, and shifting global circulation patterns.

While only isolated higher reaches may have received a brief snowfall so far, most of Kashmir has witnessed a sharp shortfall in rain and snow, raising concerns for water security, agriculture, and hydropower generation in the months ahead.

Talking to Greater Kashmir, Director, Meteorological Department Srinagar Centre, Mukhtar Ahmad, said the lack of active Western Disturbances, the primary drivers of winter precipitation in Jammu and Kashmir, was a key factor behind the prevailing dry spell.

“Climatologically, December and January record fewer Western Disturbances compared to February, March, and April. In addition, global wind circulation changes like El Nino conditions and the North Atlantic Oscillation are resulting in weaker and less moisture-laden disturbances,” he said.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) also pointed to shifting Western Disturbance tracks due to global warming.

According to it, the rising temperatures are altering the form of precipitation with more rainfall replacing snowfall, particularly at lower and middle elevations.

CLIMATE CHANGE WEAKENS WESTERN DISTURBANCES

Expanding on the long-term implications, Prof Muhammad Sultan Bhat of the Geography and Disaster Management Department at the University of Kashmir (KU), said Kashmir’s weather system, unlike most of the country, is dominated by Western Disturbances rather than monsoons, making it especially vulnerable to changes in Western Disturbance behaviour.

“Over the past 10 to 15 years, there has been a drastic change in Western Disturbances,” Prof Bhat said. “The quantum of snowfall has declined significantly, while a larger share of precipitation is now falling as rain instead of snow.”

He said climate change has impacted the Mediterranean source regions from where Western Disturbances pick up moisture.

“Due to warming, the moisture-carrying capacity of these systems has reduced. Weaker disturbances are unable to penetrate Central Asian regions and mountain barriers effectively, resulting in reduced intensity over Kashmir,” Prof Bhat said.

He also noted a shift in snowfall timing, with heavy snowfall that earlier occurred between November and mid-January now being pushed to late January, February, and even March.

“This shift is critical because snowfall in December and January helps build natural reserves. Late snowfall does not remain preserved for long, reducing long-term water availability,” Prof Bhat said.

METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT TO SOCIO-ECONOMIC DROUGHT

He warned that Kashmir was currently facing a meteorological drought, defined by precipitation levels falling below normal over a sustained period.

“If this continues, it will lead to hydrological drought, where water levels in rivers, streams, lakes, springs, and reservoirs decline,” he said. “The prolonged hydrological stress would eventually trigger agricultural drought, severely impacting water-dependent crops such as paddy and horticulture orchards.”

Prof Bhat said that in the long run, this chain could result in socio-economic drought, affecting livelihoods, incomes, and allied sectors like dairy, horticulture, and hydropower.

He said similar declining precipitation trends were being observed across other Western Disturbance-dominated regions, including Afghanistan, Iran, and Ladakh.

RISING CONCERNS ACROSS SECTORS

The ongoing dry spell has already triggered concern among farmers, orchardists, and power sector officials, as winter snowfall is crucial for groundwater recharge and sustaining river flows during the summer.

However, meteorologists said that the winter weather patterns remain dynamic, with February traditionally witnessing increased Western Disturbance activity, though the broader trend indicates growing climate uncertainty.