Dry spell deepens

Srinagar, Jan 18: Jammu and Kashmir has recorded a staggering 96 percent rainfall deficit so far this month, as a prolonged dry spell continues across the region.

The shortage has intensified concerns over shrinking water bodies and emerging drinking water stress, while farmers and orchardists fear a summer drought that could threaten agriculture, horticulture and food security.

According to data compiled by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh have received only 1.4 millimetres of precipitation so far this month, against a normal of 33 millimetres, placing the region in the “large deficient” rainfall category.

A rainfall departure of minus 60 percent to minus 99 percent is classified as large deficient, and both the Kashmir and Jammu divisions, as well as Ladakh, fall in this category.

In the Kashmir division, Budgam, Shopian, and Srinagar recorded zero rainfall during the period.

Pulwama received 0.2 mm, Bandipora and Kulgam 0.3 mm each, Kupwara 0.8 mm, Ganderbal 1.3 mm, Anantnag 1.4 mm, and Baramulla 2.4 mm.

In the Jammu division, Doda, Ramban, Samba, and Udhampur recorded zero rainfall.

Kishtwar received 0.5 mm, Kathua 1.1 mm, Reasi 1.5 mm, Jammu 1.9 mm, Rajouri 7.7 mm, and Poonch 8.3 mm.

In Ladakh, Leh recorded 0.4 mm of precipitation, while Kargil received 0.8 mm.

“All districts have recorded precipitation with departures ranging from minus 50 percent to minus 100 percent from normal,” the IMD data showed.

The January deficit follows a large rainfall deficit in December, when precipitation remained 77.5 percent below normal, compounding seasonal water stress.

Talking to Greater Kashmir, Director of IMD in Kashmir, Mukhtar Ahmad said, “Except for the winters of 2020 and 2021, December and January have remained largely dry since 2018. Reduced snowfall and prolonged dry spells are limiting snow accumulation, which is critical for sustaining rivers, springs, reservoirs, and drinking water sources during the summer.”

Light to moderate snowfall in December remained largely confined to higher-altitude areas like Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Razdan Top, Sadhna Top, Sinthan Top, Margan Top, and the Zojila Pass, leaving lower and mid-altitude regions, where most agriculture, horticulture, and population centres are located, largely dry.

The prolonged dryness has already begun impacting the region’s major water bodies.

Officials said the Jhelum River at Sangam has dipped to minus 0.8 feet, slipping below the zero-gauge level, an early indicator of hydrological stress.

Several tributaries feeding the Jhelum are also flowing well below normal levels or have dried up in stretches, including the Vaishaw at Khudwani, which originates from the Kausarnag-Aharbal range in Kulgam; the Brengi in Kokernag; the Sandran and Veth-Vethastu in Verinag; the Aaripal in Tral; and the Tongri and Romshi nallahs in Pulwama, officials said.

Hydrologists warned that declining flows were already affecting drinking water supply schemes and irrigation channels across several districts.

“The Indus-Jhelum river system depends on slow and sustained snowmelt,” said Riyaz Ahmad Mir, a geologist at the National Institute of Hydrology, Jammu. “When winter precipitation declines or falls as rain instead of snow, the system loses its buffering capacity. That directly affects irrigation and drinking water supply and can lead to drought-like conditions in summer.”

Mir said average winter temperatures in Kashmir had increased by about 0.8 degrees Celsius since the 1980s, with faster warming after 2000.

“Satellite studies indicate a 20 percent to 25 percent decline in snow cover across the Valley, directly affecting water availability for agriculture and drinking purposes,” he said.

The dry spell is likely to affect day-to-day life, with several areas already reporting a drinking water crisis and increased dependence on tanker supplies, officials said.

Meteorologists said the persistent dry weather has also led to a surge in forest fires across vulnerable zones.

“The combination of dry vegetation, lack of moisture, and increased surface heating has created conditions favourable for fire outbreaks,” said a meteorologist.

Health officials said the dry conditions are also triggering respiratory problems, with hospitals reporting a rise in patients suffering from breathing-related ailments.

Elderly people and those vulnerable to infections remain at higher risk, doctors said.

In south Kashmir’s Bijbehara, orchardists say the dry winter is already raising alarm for the upcoming horticulture season.

“Snow is our main source of water,” said Abdul Rashid, an apple orchardist from Srigufwara. “If there is no snowfall, the soil remains dry, and the trees weaken. Farmers are worried because if water shortages continue into summer, both crops and drinking water will be affected.”

Experts warned that if no significant snowfall occurs during the remaining days of Chilai Kalan, the coldest phase of winter, river levels could recede further, and the rainfall deficit may deepen.

“Only a strong weather system can replenish glaciers to some extent and recharge water bodies,” Mir said.

While meteorologists have forecast light to moderate snowfall, they said it remains uncertain whether the impact would extend to the plains or remain confined to higher altitudes.

“If there is no substantial weather system in the coming days, water bodies will continue to shrink,” an official said. “The consequences could be felt through the summer.”