double bottom or deeper crash? $1.40 close holds the answer

Ripple’s native token (XRP) traded near $1.16 on June 9 after recovering from a recent low around $1.05, according to crypto.news data. 

The token gained less than 1% over 24 hours but remained down about 8% across seven days and 19% over one month.

The rebound has eased immediate pressure, yet XRP still sits below the levels needed to confirm a broader recovery. Analysts now view the monthly close above $1.40 as the main test between a possible double bottom and another decline toward $0.80.

XRP price holds short-term support near $1.14

XRP traded between $1.14 and $1.18 during the latest 24-hour period. Its market capitalization stood near $71.8 billion, while daily trading volume reached about $2.17 billion. Immediate support remains at $1.14 to $1.15.

EGRAG Crypto said XRP reached $1.1860 before starting to build momentum for another attempt higher. “Short-term target remains: $1.19–$1.25,” the analyst said. He added that losing $1.14 could send price back toward $1.10.

A close above $1.20 would strengthen the rebound and open the path toward $1.25. XRP still faces two reported sell walls before $1.34.

As previously reported by crypto.news, XRP’s recent Binance volume surge fell below its 30-day average soon after the sell-off. Bybit open interest also dropped 36%, showing that traders reduced leveraged exposure during the decline.

Monthly close above $1.40 could confirm a double bottom

EGRAG Crypto placed the wider decision level at $1.40. “Close monthly body candle above $1.40 = bottom was in at $1.05,” the analyst said. That outcome would support a double-bottom structure around the June low.

The next recovery zone sits between $1.61 and $1.65. A move above that range would begin a stronger bullish recovery, while a break above $1.70 would offer firmer confirmation that buyers have regained control.

The weaker scenario starts if XRP loses momentum below $1.14 and $1.10. EGRAG said a failure to defend the macro structure could open a move toward $0.80.

Momentum indicators keep downside risk active

The MACD remains bearish. The MACD line stands near -0.0656, below the signal line around -0.0537. The histogram remains negative at about -0.0119, showing that downside momentum has not fully faded.

A bullish shift would require the MACD line to turn higher and cross above the signal line. Until that happens, the current rebound remains vulnerable to another pullback, especially if price fails to clear $1.20 and $1.25.

The RSI stands near 32.83, slightly above its signal line at 32.07. The reading remains close to the oversold threshold of 30, suggesting that selling pressure has become stretched.

An oversold reading can support a relief bounce, but it does not confirm a lasting bottom. XRP needs higher lows, stronger volume, and a recovery above $1.40 before the wider structure improves.

Santiment data placed XRP’s 30-day MVRV near -8%, meaning recent buyers held losses on average. Such readings can support accumulation when selling slows, though MVRV does not identify the exact bottom.

Analysts watch $0.90 to $0.70 if support fails

Ali Martinez said XRP is approaching a long-term rising trend line that has acted as support across several market cycles. He placed the wider demand area between $0.70 and $0.90.

“XRP could be approaching its largest buying zone in the last eight years,” Martinez said. He argued that buyers defending that range could support a later return toward $3, but the forecast depends on the trend line holding.