‘Don’t buy the hype’: Finfluencer says most investors are walking into a profit trap

Markets may be heading up, but that doesn’t mean your portfolio will win. According to Wisdom Hatch founder and finfluencer Akshat Shrivastava, short-term optimism sparked by the U.S.’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” could give way to deeper structural issues that threaten real investor returns. 

In a data-packed video, Shrivastava warns Indian retail investors: unless you understand how global liquidity, inflation, technicals, and growth sectors are interacting, you’re likely to underperform—if not lose money—despite the market’s rise.

Shrivastava begins by breaking down the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” recently passed in the U.S., which he says is injecting significant liquidity into the global financial system. “It’s bringing a lot more liquidity into the market,” he said, explaining that such government spending increases money flow globally. But he cautions: “There is a very high probability that liquidity has first come into the market before this news. The markets have already started to go up.”

He expects Indian indices to gain another 3–4% in the short term, completing a technical “channel” pattern—but flags that much of the upside may already be priced in. “This will most likely be accomplished,” he said, but beyond that, the picture becomes more complex.

Over a mid-term horizon, Shrivastava sees stock market CAGR in India holding around 12–13%—but inflation will eat into real returns. “The real money that you’ll make from the markets is likely to go down in the midterm,” he warned, citing persistent inflation globally.

Using historical data, he drew a strong correlation between GDP and stock market returns—especially in the Indian and U.S. context. But he pointed out a growing divergence: “GDP seems to be slow, but the stock market seems to be high. This is not good news if you’re looking to invest now.”

He referenced forecasts showing global GDP growth at just 2.5% and India’s around 6.5%, which he called “not optimistic” given India’s low per-capita GDP base. “This 6–6.5% figure is not exciting from an investor’s lens.”

On the technical side, Shrivastava cautioned that the Nifty PE ratio crossing 22 is historically followed by muted or negative 3-year returns. “Have some money on the sidelines,” he urged. “If you couldn’t buy the market when PE was 19 in 2022, you may not make meaningful returns for the next 10 years.”

On market sentiment, he pointed to the Market Mood Index showing that India is already in the “greed” zone. “Sentimentally it doesn’t look great,” he said. He’s currently allocating money to beaten-down sectors like IT in India and healthcare in the U.S., while avoiding broad index-level investments.

Shrivastava then turned to liquidity fundamentals. “RBI has cut interest rates and lowered CRR, putting more money into the Indian economy,” he explained. Banks have more to lend, loans are cheaper, and consumer spending is likely to rise—short-term positives. But he stressed that much of India’s economic movement is still tied to U.S. policy.

“The U.S. impacts us through the dollar,” he said, noting that over 60–70% of forex trade is dollar-based. That’s why moves like the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which raises debt and pumps cash into the system, have outsized influence. But he warned that over the long term, these measures are harmful.

Citing Yale research, he said increased liquidity and debt make economies structurally weaker and slow growth. “It makes the economy fragile,” he said, though he personally disagreed with the most pessimistic forecasts of collapsing GDP.

Still, one key concern he agreed with: rising bond yields. “If your cost of borrowing rises from 10% to 14–15%, that kills growth for small and mid-cap companies,” he said. “Stay away from small-cap, mid-cap if you’re a passive, long-term investor.”

The solution? Focus on growth industries that create deflation through productivity—especially AI, automation, and deep tech. “Growth creates deflation,” he said, referencing Cathie Wood’s thesis. Sectors like robo-taxis, drone delivery, and high-performance computing will cut costs and generate returns over time.

“You should invest in companies leading the growth engines,” he said. “Not general index funds. Not fear-driven gold and bitcoin bets.” Even massive firms like Meta and Amazon saw 30–70% corrections, proving that growth investing comes with volatility—but also long-term upside.