Can $1.35 hold amid massive 400M barrel oil dump?

The crypto markets witnessed a shift today as oil prices underwent one of their most significant intraday reversals in history. Following an initial surge of nearly 30% that saw Brent crude flirting with $120 per barrel due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the market plunged back toward the $100 mark.

This sudden correction followed an exclusive report from the Financial Times stating that G7 finance ministers, in coordination with the International Energy Agency (IEA), are weighing the largest-ever emergency intervention: a release of up to 400 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves.

For the cryptocurrency sector, and specifically for XRP, this cooling of energy-driven inflation fears has provided a much-needed window of stability.

XRP price analysis

The current price action on the XRP/USDT (XRP) 4-hour chart illustrates a period of high-tension consolidation following a significant rejection from the $1.47 local high.

After peaking on March 4th, the asset entered a steady downtrend characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. However, a vital defensive effort by bulls is now visible around the $1.34 to $1.35 range, where price has begun to trade sideways in a narrow cluster.

The most immediate support is firmly established at the $1.30 level, which served as a major floor during the late February sell-off.

Conversely, overhead resistance is concentrated at $1.40, a psychological barrier that has repeatedly stifled recovery attempts. If bulls can successfully leverage the current macro stabilization to push back above $1.40, the next significant resistance target lies at the recent swing high of $1.47.

Technical indicators suggest that while the immediate trend is cautious, the selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. The Money Flow Index (MFI-14) is currently positioned at 44.58, indicating a neutral momentum that has recovered from an oversold dip below 20 seen on March 7th.

This suggests that capital is slowly re-entering the asset at these lower price points.

Additionally, the Accumulation/Distribution line remains relatively flat at 26.1 billion, showing that despite the price drop from $1.47, there hasn’t been a massive exodus of volume, pointing toward “strong hands” holding through the volatility.

For a definitive bullish reversal, traders are looking for a break out of the current tight range, specifically a close above the $1.36 level seen in the most recent candle.

Failure to defend the $1.34 immediate floor could lead to a retest of the $1.30 primary support, while a breakout could pave the way for a run back toward $1.50 if global energy fears continue to subside.