Business as usual: India ramps up Russian oil buys to 2 million bpd in August

India’s crude oil imports from Russia surged to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, up from 1.6 million bpd in July, as refiners continued to prioritize economic factors over geopolitical pressure. Russian barrels accounted for 38% of India’s estimated 5.2 million bpd imports in early August, according to analytics firm Kpler.

The increase came at the cost of lower imports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which fell to 730,000 bpd and 526,000 bpd, respectively. The US was the fifth-largest supplier, with 264,000 bpd.

“Russian crude imports into India have so far remained resilient in August, even after the Trump administration’s tariff announcement in late July 2025,” Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler told PTI. However, he noted that current flows reflect deals locked in before the policy shift, and real adjustments could start from late September.

“There’s been no government directive to cut Russian volumes. So from a policy standpoint, it’s business as usual,” he said.

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) Chairman Arvinder Singh Sahney echoed the view. “Neither we are being told to buy nor told not to buy,” he told PTI. “We are not making extra effort to either increase or decrease the share of Russian crude.”

Russian oil made up about 22% of IOC’s April-June crude processing and is expected to stay steady in the near term.

Bharat Petroleum’s finance director Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta noted that Russian imports had dropped last month due to shrinking discounts, which narrowed to $1.5 per barrel. “As long as there is no new sanction on Russian oil, our procurement strategy will be 30-35 percent of Russian crude for the remaining year,” he told PTI.

India has shifted significantly toward Russian crude since Western sanctions on Moscow in 2022. Russian oil, once negligible, now makes up 35-40% of India’s crude intake. While discounts dropped sharply from $40-1.5 per barrel, they have slightly rebounded to over $2 this month.

Indian refiners are now hedging by exploring more supplies from the US, West Africa, and Latin America. “It’s a shift in mindset — from margin maximisation to energy security and logistical risk management,” Ritolia said.

Still, he added, “What we’re seeing is added flexibility, not a deliberate pivot… talk of replacement is premature.”

Sahney reiterated that crude purchases remain driven by economics. “Such purchases will continue unless sanctions are imposed,” he told PTI. “We are doing business as usual.”

On speculation that refiners were being nudged to buy more US oil to ease tensions with Washington, he clarified: “Neither are we being told to buy more nor are we told to buy less from US or any other destination. Economic considerations dictate our actions.”