Ethereum price could drop to $4,300 by year-end, says Citigroup

Ethereum’s price is holding at a decisive support level at $4,470, a region that previously acted as resistance and now serves as a bullish retest. While this area carries significant technical confluence, Citigroup analysts warn that a breakdown could trigger a deeper correction toward $4,300 before year’s end.

Ethereum’s (ETH) price action has reached a crucial turning point. The $4,470 region has flipped from resistance into support, making it a level of major importance for traders. This zone carries strong technical weight due to its confluence with trading activity and the volume profile, and the market now waits to see whether Ethereum can build from here or succumb to deeper selling pressure.

Ethereum price key technical points

• Critical Support at $4,470: Acts as a bullish retest of prior resistance with multiple rejections before being reclaimed.
• Next Major Support at $4,300: Technical confluence with the range point of control, value area low, and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
• Citigroup Bearish Forecast: Citigroup projects Ethereum could fall to $4,300 by year’s end, citing weakening base-layer activity relative to Layer 2 networks.

Ethereum’s battle at $4,470 underscores its importance. This level previously acted as a ceiling for price, rejecting attempts to push higher, until bulls finally reclaimed it. Now serving as a point of control (POC), it represents a zone of heavy volume and trading interest.

Ethereum ETFs have regained positive momentum, attracting new capital as investors refocus on the asset’s stable performance. Such levels often act as magnets, pulling price back repeatedly until a decisive move is made. If buyers continue to respect this region, Ethereum could build a bullish base that propels it back toward its highs.

However, the bearish setup becomes more probable if the price closes below $4,470. A breakdown would open the door to $4,300, an area rich with technical support, including the range POC, value area low, and the golden 0.618 Fibonacci level.

Citigroup’s forecast has drawn significant attention because it aligns with this bearish technical backdrop. The bank expects Ethereum to fall to $4,300 by the end of the year, highlighting a broader range that includes a bullish case at $6,400 and a bearish case as deep as $2,200.

Importantly, Citigroup points to Ethereum’s weakening activity on its base layer, noting that only 30% of network usage currently flows through Ethereum itself, with the majority shifting to layer-2 solutions. This structural change, the analysts argue, leaves Ethereum’s price trading above model estimates and increases the probability of a correction if key supports are lost.

What to expect in the coming price action

Ethereum remains at a crossroads. If $4,470 holds, the bullish case stays intact, with a push higher back toward the yearly highs still within reach. Conversely, a decisive close below this level would validate Citigroup’s bearish call, exposing the price to the $4,300 region where strong technical confluence awaits.