Contain China’s mineral expansionism now: Ex US diplomat warns of rare earth hegemony in Central Asia

Former US diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad has called for urgent US action to counter what he described as China’s growing push for mineral hegemony in Central Asia, warning that failure to respond swiftly could permanently tilt the region’s critical resources toward Beijing.

“China’s push for hegemony in Central Asia is marching forward with its aggressive push to control the region’s rich mineral resources. We must contain China’s mineral expansionism,” Khalilzad said in a post on Monday.

He said Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan were already looking to strike mineral deals with the Trump administration and stressed the need for a proactive US strategy. “Several countries in the wider region…are eager for mineral deals with the Trump Administration. It is imperative that we decide and soon on plans for exploring opportunities for each of these countries and perhaps regionwide. Our neglect will only help China.”

Khalilzad’s warning comes amid growing concern in Washington over China’s dominance in the global rare-earth supply chain. 

Atlantic Council earlier this year reported that China accounts for around 60% of rare-earth output and controls up to 90% of refining capacity globally. This includes elements like neodymium and dysprosium, critical for US defense systems such as F-35 fighter jets, and lithium, vital for electric vehicles. The report notes that while US domestic projects are underway, supply lines from trusted international partners remain essential.

Among those partners, Kazakhstan has emerged as a critical prospect. The country recently discovered the “Zhana Kazakhstan” rare-earth deposit in its Karagandy region, estimated to hold up to 20 million metric tons of rare-earth-bearing ore. If even a small fraction proves viable, the site could meet US neodymium magnet demand for more than a decade.

Despite this potential, Kazakhstan’s entire rare-earth output in 2023 and 2024 was exported to China. “That resource is there, but it does not currently flow to the West,” the Council noted, adding that Washington must move quickly to change that dynamic.

Kazakhstan already leads the world in uranium output and is a top-ten copper and zinc exporter. Its national mining company Tau-Ken Samruk, strong transport links through the Middle Corridor, and business-friendly policies have attracted global investors, including US-backed Cove Capital, which began rare-earth exploration near Arkalyk in 2024.