BSE to enter Nifty in September rejig? Nuvama assigns zero probability; here’s why

Nuvama has assigned zero probability to prospects of multibagger stock BSE Ltd entering the Nifty club in the September rebalancing. As per Nuvama, BSE fails to meet several key eligibility criteria. In fact, it believes there is  almost no chance of BSE even making it to the Nifty Next 50 in September 2025 review.

“We’ve received this question multiple times over the past few days. Based on our thorough review of the current index methodology, we rule out any possibility of BSE making it to the Nifty 50—at least in the September 2025 review,” Nuvama said.

Any change in the index construction methodology or a sharp 40 per cent-plus move on BSE stock, sustained through July-end, could be risk to its call, Nuvama said, adding that analysis is purely as per its understanding of existing methodology. 

The cut-off date for the Nifty rejig would be July 31. The announcement is likely in late August and the effective date for the same would be September 29, as per Nuvama. 

“We’ve gone through the methodology document in detail, and our understanding suggests that BSE fails to meet several key eligibility criteria. In fact, we believe there’s almost no chance of BSE even making it to the Nifty Next 50 in September 2025 review,” Nuvama said.

BSE shares are up 52 per cent in 2025 so far. They are up 235 per cent in the past one year and a solid 5,169 per cent in the past five year. 

Data showed BSE reached a market share of 22 per cent in terms of options premium turnover. During March 2025, the premium ADTO was at Rs 12,500 crore, which increased to Rs 15,500 crore in April 2025 and was running in the range of Rs 15,000-Rs 17,000 crore in May. The surge has been led by the addition of 114 colocation racks towards the end of March. As the utilization of the racks improves, MOFSL in a May note expected market share
gains to be sustained in the near term. Over the course of the rest of the fiscal year, the exchange is likely to add another 200 racks, which bodes well for the sustenance of market share gains.
 
“BSE has gained market share in the index derivatives segments but continues to languish in terms of market share in the cash segment and stock F&O. The regulation on a single contract note, which is to be implemented from Jul’25, is likely to be favorable for the cash segment for BSE. Further, as and when NSE lists the cash turnover for the stock, this will increase the turnover for BSE,” it said earlier.