Stock market: Sensex, Nifty set for gap up start as Trump declares Iran Israel ceasefire

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to see a gap-up start, as the US President Donald Trump declared ceasefire between Iran and Israel, sending Gift Nifty higher by 175 points and crude oil futures for September delivery lower by 3 per cent. Asian markets, led by South Korea, jumped up to 3 per cent, with Hong Kong, Japan and mainland China also gaining up to 1.3 per cent.

While Iran denied it has reached any agreement, it hinted that it does not plan any new offensive on Israel or the US for now. Its foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, in a post on X said: “As of now, there is no “agreement” on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.” 

Araghchi said the final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.

Earlier in a post on Truth Social, Trump said it was fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a complete and total ceasefire for 12 hours, at which point the war will be considered, ended!

“Officially, Iran will start the ceasefire and, upon the 12th hour, Israel will start the ceasefire and, upon the 24th hour, an official end to the 12 day war will be saluted by the world. During each ceasefire , the other side will remain peaceful and respectful,” Trump posted. 

Following this, Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 2.65 per cent to hit a low of $68.65 a barrel level. This is in addition to 8.53 per cent slide in crude oil prices on Monday. 

Gift Nifty climbed 175 points, or 0.70 per cent, to 25,225, hiting at a gap-up start for the market. The escalation of Iran-Israel conflict had put Strait of Hormuz at risk, which was in control of Iran. It made around 20 per cent of the global oil transit at risk.  A few analysts even projected oil prices to hit $120-130 a barrel. 

“Best case Scenario – $60 becomes the baseline for WTI as OPEC continues its tap of supplying global markets with ease,” Angel One’s Prathamesh Mallya said.