After missing the original June 1 timeline, Monsoon expected to reach Kerala today, says IMD

The southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala today, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, after a delay from its earlier forecast.

The monsoon usually arrives in Kerala around June 1, marking the beginning of India’s four-month southwest monsoon season, which runs from June to September.

In its daily forecast, the IMD said, “Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu around June 4.”

The weather office added that the monsoon is also expected to advance into more parts of the southwest, west-central, east-central, and northeast Bay of Bengal, as well as the remaining parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal around the same time.

The IMD had earlier forecast the onset of the monsoon over Kerala on May 26. However, its arrival was delayed, prompting the department to revise its outlook on May 29 and state that the onset could occur the following week.

The update comes days after the IMD revised its forecast for the 2026 monsoon season and projected below-normal rainfall across the country.

According to the department, India is expected to receive rainfall equivalent to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) this year.

LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a region during a specific period, usually calculated using data from the past 30 to 50 years. The LPA of seasonal rainfall across the country, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm.

The IMD classifies seasonal rainfall below 90 per cent of the LPA as “deficient”.

One reason for the below-normal rainfall forecast is the possible development of El Niño conditions, which are generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India.

At present, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific region.

The IMD said El Niño conditions are likely to remain weak in June before strengthening to moderate or strong levels by September.

(With inputs from PTI)