Fertility window shortening in Kashmir

Srinagar, May 16: The window of fertility is shrinking for women in Kashmir, with a number of factors pushing marriages and decisions to start a family further ahead in the age graph.

The profound impact of the socio-economic influences has created a scenario where population is set to shrink in coming decades.

A shrinking population carries its own set of adverse implications, from economic slowdown to an aging workforce.

J&K’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has plummeted to approximately 1.4 children per woman, quite below the replacement level of 2.1. In urban areas it is dipping as low as 1.2 and in rural areas TFR is around 1.5.

This is the sharpest declines in India, raising concerns about a shrinking population, an aging society, and long-term socio-economic challenges.

A recent panel discussion in Sopore, hosted by Haneefa Nursing College in collaboration with Hakim Sonuallah Specialist Hospital, dissected the reasons behind dropping TFR. Experts including Dr Farhat Jabeen former HoD Gyneacology and Obstetrics at GMC Srinagar, Dr Kaiser Ahmed former Principal GMC Srinagar, and others dissected the causes, consequences, and potential pathways.

The conversations blended medical insights with economic and social structure in Kashmir.

The fall in fertility is not attributable to a single cause but a complex interplay of social, economic, and cultural shifts, the experts emphasised.

The delayed marriages and the narrowing reproductive window stand out as primary drivers.

Kashmir women marry at an average age of around 23-26 years, a growing number in their 30s now.

This is among the highest in India.

The peak female fertility typically occurs between ages 18-25, after which ovarian reserve and egg quality decline noticeably.

In 30s, every passing year has a decreasing chance of fertility.

The trend of late marriages compress the natural reproductive span that leads to fewer children and rising infertility challenges.

Dr Farhat Jabeen and other experts believe this delay is extended by social factors.

Amid concerns over marital stability and rising divorce rates, women increasingly seek financial security and education. “Women want financial independence due to failing marriages,” the experts noted.

This comes usually with higher education and career focus before family formation. The economic pressures and insecurity further deter starting a family.

Expensive weddings also push couples to delay marriage until they achieve financial stability.

J&K has a high youth unemployment , and higher underemployment.

The economic uncertainty make young people hesitant to expand families.

Raising children involves money.

Most couples stop at one even if they have no fertility issues, consequent to the financial implications.

Urbanisation is also a major determinant of how many children a couple will have.

The shift towards nuclear families and reducing the traditional support from grandparents and extended kin for childcare makes couple weigh what number of children can be brought up.

It is a fact that most couples face the dual burden of work and parenting without the support of families.

The consequences extend beyond demographics, the young population could strain the future workforce.

Old-age dependency ratio is set to increase. In addition, the economic growth in J&K, already grappling with limited opportunities and out-migration would be further strained.

The healthcare systems are set to face greater pressure supporting an aging population, while the government is yet to consider geriatric medicine in every district.

J&K’s lower fertility is also linked to progress in female education and healthcare access, however, the speed and depth of dropping fertility demands proactive attention, experts believe.