What is Polymarket, and why is it trending more than Phalodi Satta Bazaar ahead of Assembly election results?

Ahead of Monday’s assembly election results, nearly $26 million – around Rs 247 crore – has been placed in bets on Polymarket, the American prediction market platform.

The scale of betting on Polymarket has drawn attention, especially when compared with the country’s informal election betting hubs such as Rajasthan’s Phalodi Satta Bazaar, where volumes are difficult to verify.

Don’t Miss: Assam Election Results 2026: How parties performed in the last election

The betting opened in December and accelerated during the polling and after the exit polls.

As of Saturday, the largest share of money was riding on Tamil Nadu, where more than $20 million was set to be paid out when results are declared, The Times of India reported, citing data from Polymarket. West Bengal had more than $5 million in bets, Kerala nearly $400,000, Assam $180,000, and Puducherry about $19,000.

Don’t Miss: Assam Election Results 2026: Key candidates you need to watch out for

What is Polymarket and how it works?

Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market launched in 2020, where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency. Instead of placing a traditional bet, users buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ shares on any question, such as: Who will win an election? Will interest rates rise? Will a ceasefire happen before a deadline?

The price of those shares ranges from $0 to $1. If ‘Yes’ shares for a party are trading at $0.65, the market is effectively assigning that party a 65% chance of winning. If the event happens, the share settles at $1. If it does not, it falls to zero.

That is why Polymarket is often watched as a live sentiment tracker rather than just a betting site.

What are the markets predicting right now?

For Tamil Nadu, Polymarket odds strongly favour the DMK at 88%. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress holds a narrow edge at 53%. In Kerala, most money is on Congress at 75%, though CPM has periodically led since early April. In Assam, the BJP is heavily favoured at 98%. In Puducherry, the AINRC-led NDA alliance leads at 86%.

What is Phalodi Satta Bazaar?

Phalodi is a small town near Jodhpur in Rajasthan that became nationally known for election betting. Long before online prediction markets, Phalodi bookmakers were setting odds on parliamentary and assembly contests. Locals often claimed the market could sense political undercurrents before pollsters.

But Phalodi remains informal, opaque and locally networked. Polymarket, by contrast, is global, digital, crypto-based and visible in real time. Anyone with access can track price movements instantly, which has made it more relevant to younger online users.

Phalodi’s betting culture began with wagers on rainfall in the arid Thar region, where uncertain monsoons had real economic consequences. Over time, it expanded into politics. Bets could be placed on candidate tickets, seat tallies, chief minister picks or national outcomes. Rates fluctuate rapidly depending on demand.

Its two common terms are ‘khana’ and ‘lagana’. ‘Khana’ usually refers to betting against a likely outcome, while ‘lagana’ suggests backing a stronger favourite.

Locals are not required to deposit money since bookies know them personally, but outsiders need to deposit cash. These days, transactions are said to be done mostly digitally, especially with outsiders.

Is Polymarket legal in India?

Indian law does not permit prediction markets to operate in the country. However, because Polymarket is decentralised and crypto-based, users can technically access it using VPN services and cryptocurrency wallets.

That has fueled speculation that Indian participants are active on the platform through anonymous accounts. India is one of the world’s largest crypto markets, which adds to that possibility.

Last week, the IT Ministry, in an advisory, directed VPN providers to ensure that their platforms were not used to access banned online betting platforms such as Polymarket.

“All VPN service providers and other intermediaries must make reasonable efforts to not host or store or permit the access to any such platforms making available unlawful information, including ‘Polymarket’ and such other similar violative platforms operating in violation of law,” the advisory read according to The Indian Express.

Why is Polymarket trending now?

Because it combines money, politics and live probability signals just before a major result day. For many users, it has become the digital-age version of Phalodi Satta Bazaar – only faster, bigger and visible to the world.

What have exit polls projected?

Exit polls have projected a clear win for the NDA in Assam, a fractured mandate in Tamil Nadu, and a likely comeback for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala. In West Bengal, several pollsters have given the BJP an edge, but some favour TMC.

For West Bengal, Today’s Chanakya, P-MARQ, Matrize have projected a comfortable lead or clear majority for the BJP, with estimates going as high as 178-208 seats. Today’s Chanakya has predicted 192 seats for the BJP and 100 for the TMC.

Counting of votes for Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry begins on Monday.