Govt rejigs crude basket prices, but gaps remain

A three-year-old discrepancy in the price of the Indian Crude Oil Basket has finally been corrected by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. The new pricing formula takes into account the shifting geopolitical realities, which have pushed the share of crude oil from the Gulf region to historical low levels.

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Ironically, the biggest price rejig since 2023 has still left wide gaps in the Indian crude price cocktail. For instance, the formula does not take into account Russian crude oil, which, according to data by Kpler, made up for 45 per cent of total Indian imports in March 2026.

Despite the Russian flavour, the Indian basket still favours only the Brent and Oman, UAE crudes.

For three years, the prices were tilted towards the Gulf oils in a 79 to 21 ratio. This, despite the volumes being in favour of the North Sea variety, with an over-50 per cent skew towards the Brent.

In March, just 16% of India’s crude imports were from the Gulf states, down from nearly 50 per cent in February.

The new pricing formula not only skips Russian oil but also does not take into account discounts and premiums on the stated price. The price of Russian Urals has swung wildly this year – from discounts of up to $20 a barrel when the oil was sanctioned by the U.S., to premiums of up to $10 when the Hormuz was blockaded by Iran last month.

Other types of crude are also not taken into account. India has diversified its suppliers to include imports from 40 countries. This is a huge increase from the long-standing reliance on 27 suppliers. This bouquet is not reflected, even in the new formula.

Take Angola, for instance. The West African nation accounted for just over 100 thousand barrels of crude oil in February this year. In March, according to Kpler, the figure more than trebled to 327 thousand barrels, making it India’s third-largest crude oil source for the month.

The table below shows the Indian imports for March and the prices as on April 13

What the change in the price formula has done is pull down the average price of the Indian Crude Oil Basket substantially.

On Tuesday, March 24, the Basket was at $147.24. After the Ram Navmi holiday, when the government decided to cut excise on motor fuels, the Basket was 22 per cent cheaper, at $115.75 per barrel.

For policy-makers, it is a far cry from the nightmare high of $157.04 hit on March 23.