Hormuz shut, Bab el Mandeb next? Houthi warnings put another chokepoint at risk in the Red Sea

As Saudi Arabia diverts oil exports through the Red Sea following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels are warning they could target another critical maritime chokepoint – the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

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The threat raises the prospect that the conflict in West Asia could disrupt two of the world’s most important oil transit routes, tightening global energy markets already rattled by the halt of tanker traffic through Hormuz.

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Iran democracy activist Mehdi Yahyanejad wrote on Saturday that the conflict could expand to the Red Sea shipping corridor. “Now that Saudi Arabia has started the alternative oil delivery through the Red Sea, the Houthis are entering the war to block that route through the Shia-strait #2, Bab-el Mandeb.”

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and ultimately the Indian Ocean. It is the world’s fourth-largest shipping chokepoint and a key gateway for vessels accessing the Suez Canal.

Houthis signal readiness to intervene

Days after the Iran war began, the leader of Yemen’s Houthi movement warned the group was prepared to escalate militarily if needed.

“Regarding military escalation and action, our fingers are on the trigger, ready to respond at any moment should developments warrant it,” Abdul Malik Al-Houthi said in a televised speech quoted by AFP.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency said the Iranian-backed Houthis and other “resistance groups” were on full alert and could join Tehran’s conflict with the United States and its partners. The agency warned that such involvement could result in the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Houthis have also warned that if countries such as Saudi Arabia enter the conflict or attacks on Iran intensify, they could begin targeting shipping lanes. Analysts say the Bab el-Mandeb corridor would likely be their primary focus.

Saudi Arabia shifts exports to the Red Sea

Saudi Arabia has begun moving crude exports through its Red Sea infrastructure to bypass Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed after attacks on commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf.

Ship-tracking data cited by Middle East Eye on March 12 showed that between 24 and 30 large crude carriers were heading toward the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu to load crude diverted from the Gulf.

The shipments rely heavily on the kingdom’s East-West pipeline, a 1,200-kilometre system linking the Abqaiq oil field near the Persian Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said earlier this week that the kingdom was ramping up crude flows through the pipeline. According to the International Energy Agency, exports from Saudi Arabia’s western ports had already surged to 5.9 million barrels per day on March 9, up from 1.7 million bpd in 2025.

“This is exactly what it was designed to do – bypass the strategic chokepoint of Hormuz if Iran shut it down and make Saudi Arabia the producer of last resort,” Jim Krane, an energy expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, previously told Middle East Eye.

The Red Sea route carries its own risks

Even with the diversion, oil shipments remain exposed because vessels transporting Saudi crude to Asia must pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

About 75% of Saudi Arabia’s crude exports go to Asian markets, including China, India, Japan, and South Korea, meaning tankers transit the strait twice – once to collect crude and again to deliver it to buyers. “This makes the Houthis important,” Greg Priddy, senior fellow for the Middle East at the Center for the National Interest, told Middle East Eye.

Shipping companies have already begun reacting to the rising security risks. Danish container giant Maersk said it had paused some Red Sea transits. “Due to the deteriorating security situation in the Middle East region following the escalating military conflict, we have decided…to pause future Trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the time being,” the company said.

Arta Moeini, managing director at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, wrote that the bombing of Kharg Island by the US was a “reckless escalation by the Trump administration.”

This move, he said, guaranteed Houthi intervention in the war, “which will likely result in the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. We are looking at a global energy crisis that could dwarf the 1973 oil shock.”

For now, global oil flows are already under pressure following Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on vessels have intensified this week. If the Bab el-Mandeb route is also disrupted, the conflict could place a second major artery of global maritime trade under threat.