Seventh Dry Winter in a Row, Jammu Kashmir Rainfall Deficit is 65 Per Cent  | Kashmir Life

SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh consecutive rainfall-deficient winter, with the December 2025-February 2026 period ending at a 65 per cent departure from normal, according to data compiled by independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif.

The region received only 100.6 mm of precipitation against a seasonal normal of 284.9 mm during the three core winter months.

“Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh straight winter rainfall deficit, with the core winter period December 2025 to February 2026 ending at a 65 per cent departure from the normal,” Arif said.

December registered a sharp 78 per cent deficit, with just 13.0 mm of rainfall recorded against a normal of 59.4 mm. January fared comparatively better due to some Western Disturbance activity, receiving 73.4 mm against the normal of 95.1 mm – a 23 per cent deficit – preventing what Arif described as a “total seasonal collapse.”

However, February witnessed a dramatic fall. With a deficit of 89 per cent, the month recorded only 14.2 mm of rainfall compared to a normal of 130.4 mm.

“February turned disastrous. With nearly 90 per cent deficit, it was one of the driest February months in the recent record. This sharp collapse dragged the entire winter seasonal total down to minus 65 per cent,” Arif said.

District-wise data shows that Kishtwar district recorded the highest rainfall deficit at 90 per cent, followed by Shopian district at 82 per cent. Srinagar and Jammu each recorded a 64 per cent shortfall.

According to Arif’s analysis, every winter since 2019-20 has ended below normal, marking a sustained dry phase. The winter of 2019-20 recorded a 20 per cent deficit, followed by 2020-21 (37 per cent), 2021-22 (8 per cent), 2022-23 (34 per cent), 2023-24 (54 per cent), and 2024-25 (45 per cent).

In contrast, the winter of 2018-19 saw a 36 per cent surplus precipitation. Earlier surplus winters included 2016-17 (29 per cent) and 2012-13 (14 per cent).

The data, Arif said, indicates a pronounced drying trend in core winter precipitation.

“With December almost dry, January subpar, and February collapsing nearly 90 per cent below normal, the snowpack generation window has weakened substantially,” he said. “Such back-to-back winter deficits reduce the natural meltwater buffer that Kashmir traditionally depends on during late spring, summer and autumn.”

Arif added that seven consecutive deficient winters suggest a sustained shift in seasonal precipitation patterns rather than isolated variability. The repeated shortfalls since 2019–20 point to increasing variability in the strength and frequency of Western Disturbances, along with greater intra-seasonal concentration of rainfall events and prolonged dry spells between active phases.