‘Jamaat’s rise is a threat to BNP as well’: What Bangladesh’s verdict means for Tarique Rahman

Bangladesh’s election has delivered clarity: the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won a commanding parliamentary majority and its leader, Tarique Rahman, is set to become prime minister for the first time. 

Yet the result also produced a second outcome – the strong return of Jamaat-e-Islami. Jamaat is Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party, which sided with Pakistan during the 1971 Liberation War.

Dr. Tara Kartha, a national security expert who served in the National Security Council Secretariat, suggests the size of Jamaat’s presence in the parliament will alter the meaning of the mandate. 

Asked whether the party’s 68 seats should concern India, she said: “I would say that the present Tarique Rahman is coming in with a clean slate. He’s also had a very troubled past. His father died, and now his mother has recently died. He is giving all the positive signals for what reason? Two reasons. One is that the Jamaat rise is a threat to their own party. That 68 is a very strong signal of a resurgent Jamaat. Nobody wants that,” she said during a panel discussion at India Today TV. 

That pressure could produce unexpected alignments, she said. “Number two is the liaison with the Awami League. We expected that these two parties would try because Jamaat is a problem for both of them.” 

Public sentiment, she said, adds urgency rather than stability. “And number three is that the youth are thoroughly disillusioned. What they want now is they need action, and they want it fast. So Tarique Rahman has a huge expectation problem. Everybody’s going to expect him to deliver and deliver now.”

Bangladesh’s parliamentary election gave the BNP 209 of 297 seats. Jamaat secured 68. The Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, was barred from contesting after protests ended her 15-year rule in August 2024. Turnout was 59.44 per cent.

Jamaat, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party, traces its origins to the East Pakistani wing of Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan and sided with Pakistan during the 1971 Liberation War. 

Asked whether Jamaat would constrain Rahman’s freedom to govern, she replied: “Absolutely they will.” She suggested ISI’s role behind Jamaat’s rise: “We can certainly talk of ISI in terms of Jamaat and what they’re going to do next because I cannot understand how they came from 11 seats to 68. There’s a lot of money there. There’s a lot of activity there.”

Electoral geography, she noted, makes the rise harder to ignore. “They’re on your borders and in some seats, including where Tarique Rahman won by a margin of 4,000 votes. How did they come to this level?”

She said the referendum was backed 100% by the Jamaat. “Why? Because it knows it will reduce the powers of the prime minister. It gives the president a massive pass in terms of whom they will choose. The opposition parties get heads of these committees. So the whole Jamaat play has been amazing.”

After winning the elections, Rahman on Saturday called for maintaining law and order “at any cost” and sought cooperation from all in building a safe and humane Bangladesh. “We need everyone’s cooperation to build a safe and humane Bangladesh. This time, everyone must play a responsible role in rebuilding the country. No injustice can be done to anyone on any excuse. Law and order must be maintained at any cost,” Rahman was quoted as saying by The Dhaka Tribune.

Bangladesh has invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Rahman.