Kashmir Faces One of Driest Winters in Years as Rainfall Deficit Touches 85 Per Cent | Kashmir Life

SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir is witnessing an unusually dry winter, with official and independent weather data pointing to one of the steepest seasonal rainfall deficits recorded in recent years, raising concerns over water availability, agriculture and horticulture across the region.

Between November 1, 2025 and January 17, 2026, Jammu and Kashmir received just 20.6 mm of precipitation against a normal average of 139 mm, translating into an overall deficit of about 85 per cent. The situation worsened further in January, when the region experienced an almost complete dry spell during what is typically a crucial period for winter rain and snowfall.

Data for the first fortnight of January shows that Jammu and Kashmir received only around 1.4-1.5 mm of rainfall against a normal of over 33-44 mm, marking a massive shortfall of nearly 96–97 per cent. Several districts across both the Kashmir Valley and the Jammu region recorded either negligible rainfall or none at all.

In the Kashmir Valley, Srinagar, Budgam and Shopian recorded zero precipitation during this period. Anantnag received just 1.7 mm against a normal of 24.5 mm, while Baramulla recorded 2.4 mm against 28.7 mm. Kupwara, which usually receives substantial winter precipitation, saw only trace rainfall, registering a deficit of around 97 per cent in early January.

Seasonal figures paint an equally worrying picture. Srinagar recorded only 22.4 mm of rainfall against a normal of 115.4 mm, an 81 per cent shortfall. Budgam saw an 80 per cent deficit, while Ganderbal recorded 29.3 mm against a normal of nearly 128 mm. South Kashmir districts have been hit the hardest, with Kulgam recording a 93 per cent deficit, Shopian 91 per cent and Anantnag around 80 per cent.

North Kashmir districts, though relatively better, also remained well below normal. Bandipora recorded a 45 per cent deficit, Baramulla 72 per cent and Kupwara nearly 50 per cent.

The Jammu region has witnessed an even sharper collapse in rainfall in several districts. Kathua recorded just 1.1 mm against a normal of over 131 mm, a staggering 99 per cent deficit. Doda, Ramban, Udhampur and Samba also saw negligible precipitation, while Jammu district recorded only 8.6 mm against a normal of 94.7 mm, reflecting a 91 per cent shortfall. Poonch and Rajouri received comparatively higher rainfall, but still faced deficits exceeding 40–60 per cent.

Ladakh, though typically arid, has also recorded significant shortfalls. Kargil received 0.8 mm against a normal of 1.6 mm, while Leh recorded a deficit of nearly 70 per cent during the January period.

Meteorologists say the data points to a widespread and intense dry spell across the region. Weather experts have warned that the prolonged absence of winter rain and snowfall could have serious implications, including reduced water availability for spring irrigation, stress on agriculture and horticulture, particularly apple orchards and saffron cultivation, and poor recharge of rivers, springs and groundwater sources.

Director of the Meteorological Centre Srinagar, Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, however, said the situation was marginally better compared to last year and expressed hope of improvement. “So far in January, the rainfall deficit is around 90 per cent. Since October, during the post-monsoon period, the deficit has been about 50 per cent. Compared to last year, the situation is somewhat better,” he said.

Dr Ahmad added that a major spell of rain and snowfall is expected in the coming days. “Widespread precipitation is likely across Jammu and Kashmir, which should help reduce the deficit. The extent of improvement will depend on how strong and sustained the spell is,” he said.

For now, the persistently dry winter has heightened anxiety among farmers, horticulturists and water managers, all of whom depend heavily on winter precipitation to sustain the region through the coming spring and summer months.
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