85% winter rainfall deficit haunts J&K despite wet spell forecast

Srinagar, Jan 21: Back-to-back wet spells forecast this week are expected to bring some relief to Jammu and Kashmir’s prolonged dry conditions, but meteorologists say the precipitation would fall far short of compensating for the massive rainfall deficit that has built up since November 1.

According to official data, J&K has recorded an overall rainfall deficit of 85 percent from November 1 to January 21, receiving only 20.6 mm of rainfall against a normal of 139 mm.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast two wet spells between January 22 and January 28, driven by strong Western Disturbances.

Director Meteorological Department (MeT)’s Srinagar Centre, Mukhtar Ahmad, told Greater Kashmir the system expected between January 22 and January 25 could bring significant precipitation in parts of the region.

“At least 40 mm of precipitation is expected during the upcoming spells, and in some districts, it could reach 60 to 70 mm,” Ahmad said. “This will definitely ease the rainfall deficit to some extent, but since the deficit is very large, much will depend on how February shapes up.”

Officials said the Chenab Valley, the Pir Panjal range, and parts of south Kashmir are likely to witness widespread moderate to heavy snowfall and rainfall during the period.

Independent weather forecaster Faizan Ahmad said even an active spell would have only a limited impact on the cumulative shortfall.

“The deficit is so high that even if this system delivers substantial precipitation, it may only bring it down to around 20 percent at the best,” he said. “Several wet spells in February will be required to bring rainfall closer to normal.”

Winter precipitation plays a critical role in activating glaciers and replenishing rivers and reservoirs, including the River Jhelum, which supports agriculture, horticulture, and drinking water supply across Kashmir.

“While the upcoming spell will provide some relief to water bodies that have gone dry or are on the brink, sustained snowfall during Chillai Kalan is what really matters,” Faizan said, referring to the harshest winter period from December 21 to January 29.

According to the MeT, barring 2020, snowfall during December and January has remained below normal since 2018, a trend officials attribute to climate change and adverse environmental conditions.

Experts warn that the pattern threatens food security, livelihoods, and drinking water availability in the region.

All districts in Kashmir have recorded severe to extremely severe rainfall deficits since November 1.

Srinagar recorded 22.4 mm of rainfall against a normal of 115.4 mm, a deficit of 81 percent.

Budgam received 16.4 mm, reflecting an 80 percent shortfall, while Ganderbal recorded 29.3 mm against a normal of 127.9 mm, a 77 percent deficit.

North Kashmir districts, traditionally wetter during winter, also remained well below normal.

Bandipora recorded 56.9 mm, a 45 percent deficit, Baramulla 35.8 mm, a 72 percent deficit, and Kupwara 72.2 mm against a normal of 141.6 mm, a 49 percent deficit.

South Kashmir was among the worst affected.

Kulgam received just 13.4 mm against a normal of 196.8 mm, a deficit of 93 percent.

Shopian recorded 9 mm, a deficit of 91 percent; Pulwama 17.5 mm, a deficit of 77 percent; and Anantnag 22.6 mm, a deficit of 80 percent.

In the Jammu region, the rainfall collapse was even more pronounced.

Kathua recorded only 1.1 mm against a normal of 131.3 mm, a staggering 99 percent deficit.

Doda recorded 94 percent deficit rainfall, Ramban 87 percent deficit, Udhampur 94 percent deficit, and Samba 98 percent deficit.

Jammu district recorded 8.6 mm against a normal of 94.7 mm, a deficit of 91 percent.

Poonch, with a 42 percent shortfall, fared relatively better but still remained below normal.

Overall, J&K recorded a rainfall deficit of 85 percent, while Ladakh registered a 77 percent shortfall during the same period.

The dry trend intensified sharply in January.

From January 1 to January 21, J&K received just 1.5 mm of rainfall against a normal of 44.4 mm, a deficit of 97 percent.

Several districts, including Srinagar, Budgam, Shopian, Doda, Ramban, Samba, and Udhampur, recorded zero rainfall during this period.

Among other districts, Anantnag recorded a rainfall deficit of 95 percent, Baramulla 93 percent, Kupwara 93 percent, and Jammu 94 percent.

In Ladakh, rainfall between January 1 and January 17 stood at 1.1 mm against a normal of 2.6 mm, a 56 percent deficit, while Leh recorded a sharp 79 percent shortfall and Kargil over 50 percent.

Meteorologists say that while the upcoming wet spell may ease immediate stress on water resources, sustained precipitation over the coming weeks would be critical to reversing the prolonged winter rainfall deficit.