2 Western Disturbances likely to end dry spell

Srinagar, Dec 18: A prolonged dry spell in Jammu and Kashmir is expected to end this weekend, as two back-to-back Western Disturbances are likely to bring rain and snowfall across the region from Saturday night through Tuesday, weather analysts said.

Even as sub-zero temperatures continue to grip much of Kashmir, the forecast suggests a change in the weather.

“Current analysis suggests that two Western Disturbances will affect J&K between December 20 and 23, with precipitation beginning over higher reaches from Saturday night,” Kashmir Weather said in a data bulletin. “Peak activity is likely on Sunday or Monday.”

The weather services predict that December 18 and 19 are expected to remain largely dry, although cloudy conditions will prevail across Jammu and Kashmir.

Light snowfall is possible Saturday over isolated higher reaches, particularly along the Sonamarg-Drass axis and in upper areas of Kupwara, Bandipora, and Ganderbal districts.

“The higher reaches of north Kashmir, especially Kupwara district, are likely to be the most affected,” the advisory said. “Snowfall over higher elevations may range from light to heavy, with heavy snowfall mainly anticipated in Kupwara’s upper reaches.”

Snowfall is also expected in higher areas of Bandipora, Baramulla, and Ganderbal, while plains are likely to receive light rain.

Moderate rainfall is possible in some areas, but snowfall over the plains is unlikely due to relatively higher temperatures, the forecast said.

Tourist destinations Gulmarg and Sonamarg are expected to receive light to moderate snowfall, with conditions favourable for accumulation.

The second disturbance may prolong snowfall in Kupwara’s upper reaches until Tuesday afternoon.

“Temperatures are expected to remain relatively lower between Monday night and Tuesday morning, which could result in dry snow if precipitation occurs,” Kashmir Weather said.

The Jammu region is forecast to experience light to moderate rainfall during the same period.

Flight operations are not expected to be affected.

Although overall precipitation amounts are not expected to be high, the weather systems are likely to provide relief from deteriorating air quality and elevated fire risk.

“Air pollution levels are likely to drop significantly, offering short-term relief, and the risk of forest fires is expected to reduce considerably,” the advisory said.

Meanwhile, cold wave conditions continued across J&K on Wednesday night, with several areas in Kashmir recording sub-zero minimum temperatures.

Zojila Pass was the coldest location, recording a minimum temperature of minus 17 degrees Celsius, Kashmir Weather said, citing data compiled in the Valley.

Among towns, Awantipora recorded the lowest minimum at minus 3.8 degrees Celsius, followed by Pulwama at minus 3.2 degrees Celsius.

Pampore and Baramulla each recorded minus 1.8 degrees Celsius, while Shopian settled at minus 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Srinagar recorded a low of 0.2 degrees Celsius, while the Srinagar airport touched the freezing point.

Kupwara recorded minus 1 degree Celsius, Anantnag minus 0.3 degrees Celsius, Budgam and Bandipora minus 0.8 degrees Celsius each, and Ganderbal minus 0.1 degrees Celsius.

In the Jammu region, temperatures remained comparatively higher.

Jammu city recorded a minimum of 11 degrees Celsius, Katra 12.1 degrees Celsius and Banihal 5.7 degrees Celsius.

In Ladakh, Leh recorded a minimum temperature of minus 3.4 degrees Celsius.

Data for Kargil and the Nubra Valley was unavailable.

Weather authorities said forecasts would be updated based on real-time observations.